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Does Financial Globalization Induce Better Macroeconomic Policies?

  • Shang-Jin Wei
  • Irina Tytell

Monetary and fiscal policies around the world are in better shape today than two decades ago. This paper studies whether financial globalization has helped induce governments to pursue better macroeconomic policies (the "discipline effect"). The empirical tests have two innovations. First, we recognize potential endogeneity of the observed capital flows in a given country and employ an instrumental variable approach that relies on the autonomous (global) component of the capital flows. Second, we recognize inherent discreteness in defining good versus bad macroeconomic policies and use a transition matrix technique to determine whether capital flows are effective in inducing substantial qualitative policy shifts. Our results suggest that, in spite of the plausibility of the "discipline effect" in theory, it is not easy to find strong and robust causal evidence. There is some evidence that financial globalization may have induced countries to pursue low-inflation monetary policies. However, there is no evidence that it has encouraged low budget deficits.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/84.

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Length: 40
Date of creation: 01 May 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/84
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  1. Danny Quah, 1992. "Empirical Cross-Section Dynamics in Economic Growth," FMG Discussion Papers dp154, Financial Markets Group.
  2. Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2000. "Capital Market Liberalization, Economic Growth, and Instability," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1075-1086, June.
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  4. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1998. "The Global Capital Market: Benefactor or Menace?," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt3kn3n2s8, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
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  8. David Romer, 1991. "Openness and inflation: theory and evidence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
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  10. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  12. Bartolini, Leonardo & Drazen, Allan, 1997. "Capital-Account Liberalization as a Signal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 138-54, March.
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  14. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Choices and Consequences," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262072408, June.
  15. M. Ayhan Kose & Kenneth Rogoff & Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence," IMF Occasional Papers 220, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Paul R. Masson, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regime Transitions," IMF Working Papers 00/134, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Woochan Kim, 2003. "Does Capital Account Liberalization Discipline Budget Deficit?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(5), pages 830-844, November.
  18. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "Can international monetary policy cooperation be counterproductive?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 199-217, May.
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