IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Political Instability and Growth; The Central African Republic


  • Dhaneshwar Ghura
  • Benoît Mercereau


This paper provides empirical evidence that the propensity for political instability in the Central African Republic (C.A.R.) has been increased by low tax revenues and deteriorations in the terms of trade. The direct effect of political instability on economic growth is not statistically significant, once account is taken of domestic investment, and economic growth in neighboring countries. The policy implications are: (i) mobilization of domestic revenues to pay public employees' salaries and provide basic social services would lower the probability of coups; (ii) economic diversification would reduce the propensity for adverse terms of trade shocks to fuel coups; and (iii) neighboring countries' efforts to resolve conflicts and achieve sustained growth would be beneficial for the C.A.R.'s economic performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Dhaneshwar Ghura & Benoît Mercereau, 2004. "Political Instability and Growth; The Central African Republic," IMF Working Papers 04/80, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/80

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. William Easterly & Ross Levine, 1997. "Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1203-1250.
    2. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2002. "Greed and Grievance in Civil War," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2002-01, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Fosu, A. K., 2001. "Political instability and economic growth in developing economies: some specification empirics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 289-294, February.
    4. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2002. "Greed and grievance in civil wars," CSAE Working Paper Series 2002-01, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    5. Paul Collier & V. L. Elliott & Håvard Hegre & Anke Hoeffler & Marta Reynal-Querol & Nicholas Sambanis, 2003. "Breaking the Conflict Trap : Civil War and Development Policy," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13938, June.
    6. Paolo Mauro, 1995. "Corruption and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(3), pages 681-712.
    7. Sachs, Jeffrey D & Warner, Andrew M, 1997. "Sources of Slow Growth in African Economies," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 6(3), pages 335-376, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Therese F. Azeng & Thierry Yogo Urbain, 2013. "Working Paper 171 - Youth Unemployment and Political Instability in Selected Developing Countries," Working Paper Series 467, African Development Bank.
    2. Mutascu, Mihai & Tiwari, Aviral & Estrada, Fernando, 2011. "Taxation and political stability," MPRA Paper 36855, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2012.
    3. repec:blg:journl:v:12:y:2017:i:2:p:70-99 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Mark W Lewis & Jean-Claude Nachega & Said A Bakhache & Kadima D. Kalonji, 2006. "Assessing Competitiveness After Conflict; The Case of the Central African Republic," IMF Working Papers 06/303, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Estrada, Fernando & Mutascu, Mihai & Tiwari, Aviral, 2011. "Estabilidad política y tributación
      [Taxation and political stability]
      ," MPRA Paper 32414, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Estrada, Fernando, 2013. "Estabilidad política y poder fiscal
      [political stability and tax power]
      ," MPRA Paper 58458, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    7. Dhaneshwar Ghura & Rina Bhattacharya, 2006. "Oil and Growth in the Republic of Congo," IMF Working Papers 06/185, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Barry, Boubacar-Sid & Gacitua-Mario, Estanislao & Wodon, Quentin, 2007. "Conflict, Livelihoods, and Poverty in Guinea-Bissau: An Overview," MPRA Paper 11115, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Luděk Kouba, 2009. "Návrh klasifikace soudobých sociálně-ekonomických přístupů k teorii růstu
      [The Proposal of Original Classification of Contemporary Social-Economic Approaches to the Growth Theory]
      ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2009(5), pages 696-713.


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/80. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.