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Estimation of Economic Growth in France Using Business Survey Data

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  • Alain N. Kabundi

Abstract

This paper proposes a new way of computing a coincident indicator for economic activity in France using data from business surveys. We use the generalized dynamic factor model à la Forni and others (2000) to extract common components from a large number of survey observations. The results obtained show that the resulting indicator forecasts economic activity with a relatively high degree of accuracy before the release of actual data.

Suggested Citation

  • Alain N. Kabundi, 2004. "Estimation of Economic Growth in France Using Business Survey Data," IMF Working Papers 04/69, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/69
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
    2. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
    3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alain Kabundi & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2011. "France in the global economy: a structural approximate dynamic factor model analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 311-342, October.
    2. Gupta, Rangan & Kabundi, Alain, 2011. "A large factor model for forecasting macroeconomic variables in South Africa," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1076-1088, October.
    3. Sara Serra & José R. Maria, 2008. "Forecasting investment: A fishing contest using survey data," Working Papers w200818, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    4. Gupta, Rangan & Kabundi, Alain & Miller, Stephen M., 2011. "Forecasting the US real house price index: Structural and non-structural models with and without fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 2013-2021, July.
    5. Sandra Eickmeier & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "How successful are dynamic factor models at forecasting output and inflation? A meta-analytic approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 237-265.
    6. Alain Kabundi & Elmarie Nel & Franz Ruch, 2016. "Working Paper – WP/16/01- Nowcasting Real GDP growth in South Africa," Papers 7068, South African Reserve Bank.
    7. Javier Jareño, 2007. "Opinion-based surveys in the conjunctural analysis of the Spanish economy," Occasional Papers 0706, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.

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