Sovereign Debt Defaults and Financing Needs
We construct a financial vulnerability indicator that is consistent with the theoretical literature on determinants of defaults. It is based on the amount of new foreign financing that is needed to avoid a default or an import adjustment, expressed as a proportion of the country's sources of foreign currency. As the need for new foreign financing increases, so does a country's financial vulnerability. The indicator has a higher correlation with default episodes than other indicators used in previous studies. In addition, the level at which it leads to a high probability of default is comparable across countries.
|Date of creation:||01 Mar 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alesina, Alberto F & Prati, Alessandro & Tabellini, Guido, 1989.
"Public Confidence and Debt Management: A Model and a Case Study of Italy,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
351, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alesina, A. & Prati, A. & Tabellini, G., 1989. "Public Confidence And Debt Management: A Model And A Case Study Of Italy," Papers 5, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
- Alberto Alesina & Alessandro Prati & Guido Tabellini, 1989. "Public Confidence and Debt Management: A Model and A Case Study of Italy," NBER Working Papers 3135, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cohen, Daniel, 2001.
"The HIPC Initiative: True and False Promises,"
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 363-80, Winter.
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? Part I: A Macroeconomic Overview," NBER Working Papers 6833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:pal:imfstp:v:43:y:1996:i:3:p:545-570 is not listed on IDEAS
- Jerome L. Stein & Giovanna Paladino, 2001.
"Country Default Risk: An Empirical Assessment,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
469, CESifo Group Munich.
- Chang, R. & Velasco, A., 1998.
"Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime,"
98-05, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1997. "Financial fragility and the exchange rate regime," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 97-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Calvo, Guillermo A, 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 647-61, September.
- Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1989.
"Confidence Crises and Public Debt Management,"
NBER Working Papers
2926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- F. Giavazzi & M. Pagano, 1989. "Confidence Crises and Public Debt Management," Working Papers 73, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
- Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1989. "Confidence Crises and Public Debt Management," CEPR Discussion Papers 318, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996.
"Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," CEPR Discussion Papers 1315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features," NBER Working Papers 5285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hyungsik Roger MOON & Benoit PERRON, 2002.
"Testing For A Unit Root In Panels With Dynamic Factors,"
Cahiers de recherche
18-2002, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Moon, H.R.Hyungsik Roger & Perron, Benoit, 2004. "Testing for a unit root in panels with dynamic factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 81-126, September.
- MOON, Hyungsik Roger & PERRON, Benoit., 2002. "Testing for a Unit Root in Panels with Dynamic Factors," Cahiers de recherche 2002-18, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Enrica Detragiache, 1996. "Rational Liquidity Crises in the Sovereign Debt Market; In Search of a Theory," IMF Working Papers 96/38, International Monetary Fund.
- Reinhart, Carmen, 2002.
"Default, currency crises, and sovereign credit ratings,"
13917, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 16(2), pages 151-170, August.
- Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises and Sovereign Credit Ratings," NBER Working Papers 8738, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Samir Jahjah & Ralph Chami & Connel Fullenkamp, 2003. "Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development?," IMF Working Papers 03/189, International Monetary Fund.
- Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/53. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.