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The Role of Stock Markets in Current Account Dynamics; A Time Series Approach

  • Benoît Mercereau

This paper develops a simple model to study the impact of stock markets on the current account. A closed-form solution for the current account is derived from the optimal portfolio and consumption/saving choices of a representative agent. Formally, the model can be seen as a stock market-augmented version of the "fundamental equation of the current account" popularized by Jeffrey Sachs. It appears to shed light on recent developments in the U.S. current account deficit. The model also shows how the current account may help predict future stock market performance and/or endowment streams.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/50.

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Length: 30
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/50
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  1. David A. Marshall & Nayan G. Parekh, 1999. "Can Costs of Consumption Adjustment Explain Asset Pricing Puzzles?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 623-654, 04.
  2. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2000. "Current Accounts In Debtor And Creditor Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1137-1166, November.
  3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994. "The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 4893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Sydney Ludvigson & Charles Steindel, 1998. "How important is the stock market effect on consumption?," Research Paper 9821, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney, 1999. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth and Expected Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 2223, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C John, 1998. "Are Australia's Current Account Deficits Excessive?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 346-61, December.
  7. Olumuyiwa Adedeji, 2001. "The Size and Sustainability of the Nigerian Current Account Deficits," IMF Working Papers 01/87, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Sheffrin, Steven M. & Woo, Wing Thye, 1990. "Present value tests of an intertemporal model of the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 237-253, November.
  9. Steven J. Davis & Jeremy Nalewaik & Paul Willen, 2000. "On the Gains to International Trade in Risky Financial Assets," NBER Working Papers 7796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Tim Callen & Paul Cashin, 1999. "Assessing External Sustainability in India," IMF Working Papers 99/181, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Jaume Ventura, 2001. "A Portfolio View of the U.S. Current Account Deficit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 241-258.
  12. Sachs, Jeffrey, 1982. " The Current Account in the Macroeconomic Adjustment Process," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 84(2), pages 147-59.
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