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The Role of Stock Markets in Current Account Dynamics; a Time-Series Approach

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  • Benoît Mercereau

Abstract

This paper develops a simple model to study the impact of stock markets on the current account. A closed-form solution for the current account is derived from the optimal portfolio and consumption/saving choices of a representative agent. Formally, the model can be seen as a stock market-augmented version of the "fundamental equation of the current account" popularized by Jeffrey Sachs. It appears to shed light on recent developments in the U.S. current account deficit. The model also shows how the current account may help predict future stock market performance and/or endowment streams.

Suggested Citation

  • Benoît Mercereau, 2004. "The Role of Stock Markets in Current Account Dynamics; a Time-Series Approach," IMF Working Papers 04/50, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/50
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C John, 1998. "Are Australia's Current Account Deficits Excessive?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 346-361, December.
    2. Steven J. Davis & Jeremy Nalewaik & Paul Willen, 2000. "On the Gains to International Trade in Risky Financial Assets," NBER Working Papers 7796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Martin Lettau, 2001. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, June.
    4. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics,in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799 Elsevier.
    5. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2000. "Current Accounts in Debtor and Creditor Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1137-1166.
    6. David A. Marshall & Nayan G. Parekh, 1999. "Can Costs of Consumption Adjustment Explain Asset Pricing Puzzles?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 623-654, April.
    7. Sheffrin, Steven M. & Woo, Wing Thye, 1990. "Present value tests of an intertemporal model of the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 237-253, November.
    8. Sydney Ludvigson & Charles Steindel, 1999. "How important is the stock market effect on consumption?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 29-51.
    9. Tim Callen & Paul Cashin, 1999. "Assessing External Sustainability in India," IMF Working Papers 99/181, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Olumuyiwa S Adedeji, 2001. "The Size and Sustainability of Nigerian Current Account Deficits," IMF Working Papers 01/87, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Sachs, Jeffrey, 1982. " The Current Account in the Macroeconomic Adjustment Process," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 84(2), pages 147-159.
    12. Jaume Ventura, 2001. "A Portfolio View of the U.S. Current Account Deficit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 241-258.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tille, Cédric, 2008. "Financial integration and the wealth effect of exchange rate fluctuations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 283-294, July.
    2. Mercereau, Benoit, 2006. "Stock markets and the real exchange rate: An intertemporal approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1130-1145, November.
    3. Kollmann, Robert, 2006. "International Portfolio Equilibrium and the Current Account," CEPR Discussion Papers 5512, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Tarlok Singh, 2007. "Intertemporal Optimizing Models Of Trade And Current Account Balance: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 25-64, February.
    5. Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "The Role of Current Account Balance in Forecasting the US Equity Premium: Evidence From a Quantile Predictive Regression Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 47-59, February.
    6. Chen Kuo, 2013. "Is the liberalization policy effective on improving bivariate cointegration of current accounts, foreign exchange, stock prices? Further evidence from Asian markets," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1923-1941, June.
    7. Kitamura, Yoshihiro, 2009. "The current account and stock returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 302-321, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current account; International finance; Stock markets; United States; current account deficits; domestic agents; current account dynamics; balance of payments;

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