IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Aid and the Dutch Disease in Low-Income Countries; Informed Diagnoses for Prudent Prognoses


  • Mwanza Nkusu


This paper demonstrates that the Dutch disease need not materialize in low-income countries that can draw on their idle productive capacity to satisfy the aid-induced increased demand. Diagnoses on, and prognoses for, the Dutch disease should take into account country-specific circumstances to avoid ill-advised policies. The paper emphasizes that using public resources inefficiently can be more painful than real exchange rate appreciations, which may not necessarily embody the Dutch disease.

Suggested Citation

  • Mwanza Nkusu, 2004. "Aid and the Dutch Disease in Low-Income Countries; Informed Diagnoses for Prudent Prognoses," IMF Working Papers 04/49, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/49

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Benjamin, Nancy C. & Devarajan, Shantayanan & Weiner, Robert J., 1989. "The Dutch disease in a developing country : Oil reserves in Cameroon," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 71-92, January.
    2. Collier, Paul, 1999. "Aid 'Dependency': A Critique," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 8(4), pages 528-545, December.
    3. Torvik, Ragnar, 2001. "Learning by doing and the Dutch disease," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 285-306, February.
    4. R. Lensink & H. White, 2001. "Are There Negative Returns to Aid?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 42-65.
    5. William Easterly & Ross Levine & David Roodman, 2003. "New Data, New doubts: A Comment on Burnside and Dollar's "Aid, Policies, and Growth" (2000)," NBER Working Papers 9846, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Henrik Hansen & Finn Tarp, 2000. "Aid effectiveness disputed," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 375-398, April.
    7. Isabell Adenauer & Laurence Vagassky, 1998. "Aid and the real exchange rate: Dutch disease effects in African countries," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;German National Library of Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 33(4), pages 177-185, July.
    8. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Henrik Hansen & Finn Tarp, 2004. "On The Empirics of Foreign Aid and Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(496), pages 191-216, June.
    9. Vos, Rob, 1998. "Aid Flows and "Dutch Disease" in a General Equilibrium Framework for Pakistan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 77-109, February.
    10. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A, 1999. "External Aid: Help or Hindrance to Export Orientation in Africa?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 8(4), pages 578-616, December.
    11. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-380, November.
    12. Nyoni, Timothy S., 1998. "Foreign Aid and Economic Performance in Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1235-1240, July.
    13. Younger, Stephen D., 1992. "Aid and the Dutch disease: Macroeconomic management when everybody loves you," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(11), pages 1587-1597, November.
    14. Auty, Richard M., 2001. "The political state and the management of mineral rents in capital-surplus economies: Botswana and Saudi Arabia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 77-86, June.
    15. Harvey, Charles, 1992. "Botswana: Is the Economic Miracle Over?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 1(3), pages 335-368, November.
    16. White, Howard & Wignaraja, Ganeshan, 1992. "Exchange rates, trade liberalization and aid: The Sri Lankan experience," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(10), pages 1471-1480, October.
    17. William Easterly, 2003. "Can Foreign Aid Buy Growth?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 23-48, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4066 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Katerina Kalcheva & Nienke Oomes, 2007. "Diagnosing Dutch Disease; Does Russia Have the Symptoms?," IMF Working Papers 07/102, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Benedicte Vibe Christensen, 2010. "China in Africa: A Macroeconomic Perspective," Working Papers id:3169, eSocialSciences.
    4. Eun K Choi, 2005. "Infrastructure Aid, Deindustrialization, and Welfare," IMF Working Papers 05/150, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra & Lya Paola Sierra, 2017. "Long-term links between raw materials prices, real exchange rate and relative de-industrialization in a commodity-dependent economy: empirical evidence of “Dutch disease” in Colombia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 777-798, March.
    6. Aaron Mehrotra & Jouko Rautava, 2008. "Do sentiment indicators help to assess and predict actual developments of the Chinese economy?," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 225-239.
    7. Aliyu Rafindadi Sanusi, 2011. "Foreign Aid Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate: Are There Dutch Disease Effects in Ghana?," The IUP Journal of Financial Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 28-59, December.
    8. Eduardo Haddad & Ana Carolina Giuberti, 2011. "Economic Impacts of Pre-Salt on a Regional Economy: The Case of Espirito Santo, Brazil," ERSA conference papers ersa10p156, European Regional Science Association.
    9. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal & El Aynaoui, Karim, 2008. "Roads out of poverty? Assessing the links between aid, public investment, growth, and poverty reduction," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 277-295, June.
    10. Pedro M. G. Martins, 2010. "Do Capital Inflows Hinder Competitiveness? The Real Exchange Rate in Ethiopia," Working Paper Series 1110, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
    11. Selaya, Pablo & Thiele, Rainer, 2008. "Aid and sectoral labour productivity," Kiel Working Papers 1468, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    12. Li, Ying & Rowe, Francis, 2007. "Aid inflows and the real effective exchange rate in Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4456, The World Bank.
    13. World Bank, 2007. "An Assessment of the Investment Climate in Botswana, Volume 2. Detailed Results and Econometric Analysis," World Bank Other Operational Studies 7747, The World Bank.
    14. Terry McKinley, 2005. "Why is ?The Dutch disease? always a disease? the macroeconomic consequences of scaling up ODA," Working Papers 10, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    15. Sandrine Kablan & Josef Loening & Yasuhiro Tanaka, 2014. "Is Chad Affected by Dutch or Nigerian Disease?," Journal of Empirical Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 3(5), pages 278-295.
    16. Nuno Baetas da Silva & João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2016. "Alternative Sources of Dutch Disease: A Survey of the Literature," GEMF Working Papers 2016-10, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    17. Haddad Eduardo Amaral & Giuberti Ana Carolina, 2014. "Economic impacts of natural resources on a regional economy: the case of the pre-salt oil discoveries in Espirito Santo, Brazil," Экономика региона, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное бюджетное учреждение науки «Институт экономики Уральского отделения Российской академии наук», issue 1, pages 111-124.
    18. Stephen J. Turnovsky & Serpil Tekin & Valerie Cerra, 2008. "Foreign Aid and Real Exchange Rate Adjustments in a Financially Constrained Dependent Economy," IMF Working Papers 08/204, International Monetary Fund.
    19. John Serieux, 2007. "Managing the Exchange Rate Consequences of an MDG-Related Scale-up in HIV/AIDS Financing," Conference Paper 1, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    20. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2013. "The Dutch Disease in the Portuguese Economy," GEMF Working Papers 2013-05, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    21. Ben Naceur, Sami & Bakardzhieva, Damyana & Kamar, Bassem, 2012. "Disaggregated Capital Flows and Developing Countries’ Competitiveness," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 223-237.
    22. Sanyal, Prabuddha & Babu, Suresh, 2008. "Aid effectiveness and capacity development: Implications for economic growth in developing countries," IFPRI discussion papers 838, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    23. Mwanza Nkusu, 2004. "Financing Uganda'S Poverty Reduction Strategy; Is Aid Causing More Pain Than Gain?," IMF Working Papers 04/170, International Monetary Fund.
    24. ZARZOSA VALDIVIA, Fernando Enrique, 2006. "Income distribution, Dutch disease and real exchange rate movements," Working Papers 2006033, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
    25. Oomes, Nienke & Kalcheva, Katerina, 2007. "Diagnosing Dutch disease : Does Russia have the symptoms?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/49. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.