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Competitiveness in Bulgaria; An Assessment of the Real Effective Exchange Rate

  • Piritta Sorsa
  • Dimitar Chobanov
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    This paper presents an empirical analysis of the medium- and long-term determinants of the real (effective) exchange rate (RER) of the Bulgarian lev using elements from the natural real exchange rate (NATREX) and the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approaches. The results indicate that the RER is driven by fundamentals, including labor productivity, terms of trade, world real interest rates, gross savings, and foreign direct investment. The model also shows that there is no significant misalignment of the Bulgarian lev.

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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=17187
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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/37.

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    Length: 25
    Date of creation: 01 Mar 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/37
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    1. Jörg Rahn, 2003. "Bilateral Equilibrium Exchange Rates of the EU Accession Countries against the Euro," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20306, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    2. Christoph Fischer, 2004. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 179-210, June.
    3. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "International Experiences with Different Monetary Policy Regimes," NBER Working Papers 7044, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Edwards, Sebastian, 1988. "Real and monetary determinants of real exchange rate behavior: Theory and evidence from developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 311-341, November.
    5. Tarhan Feyzioglu, 1997. "Estimating the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate; An Application to Finland," IMF Working Papers 97/109, International Monetary Fund.
    6. De Broeck, Mark & Slok, Torsten, 2006. "Interpreting real exchange rate movements in transition countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 368-383, March.
    7. Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland & Katerina Smidkova, 2003. "Estimates of Fundamental Real Echange Rates for the Five EU Pre- Accession Countries," Macroeconomics 0303016, EconWPA.
    8. Dibooglu, Selahattin & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Transition Economies: The Case of Poland and Hungary," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 257-275, June.
    9. Paul Hallwood & Ronald MacDonald, 2008. "International Money and Finance," Working papers 2008-02, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    10. Ronald MacDonald, 1997. "What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of it," IMF Working Papers 97/21, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Nikolay Nenovsky & Kalina Dimitrova, 2002. "Dual Inflation Under the Currency Board: The Challenges of Bulgarian EU Accession," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 487, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    12. Frait , Jan & Komárek, Luboš, 2001. "REAL Exchange rate trends in transitional countries," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 596, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
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