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Liberalized Markets Have More Stable Exchange Rates; Short-Run Evidence From Four Transition Countries

  • Ales Bulir

The paper looks at the hypothesis that financial market liberalization can create a basis for more stable exchange rates, as deviations of exchange rates from equilibrium levels bring forth stabilizing flows of liquidity. This "endogenous liquidity" hypothesis suggests that opening financial markets militates in favor of exchange rate flexibility by increasing the viability of a floating regime, as well as making it more difficult to maintain a peg. The paper examines this hypothesis in a sample of four transition economies and finds that exchange rates tend to return faster to their Hodrick-Prescott-based values where markets are liberalized. The results suggest that early and successful foreign exchange liberalization pays off in terms of depth of the market and, hence, faster adjustment of exchange rate to shocks. Moreover, it implies that central banks should not be overly concerned with short-run volatility of their national exchange rates, given the self-correcting tendencies.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/35.

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Length: 32
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/35
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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series: implications for business cycle research," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Martin D. D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-288, University of California at Berkeley.
  3. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2003. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3808, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Siklos, Pierre L. & Granger, Clive W.J., 1997. "Regime-Sensitive Cointegration With An Application To Interest-Rate Parity," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(03), pages 640-657, September.
  5. Bofinger, Peter & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2001. "Managed floating: Understanding the new international monetary order," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 30, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  6. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  7. Kim, Soyoung, 2003. "Monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention, and the exchange rate in a unifying framework," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 355-386, August.
  8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Alexis Derviz, 2003. "Components of the Czech Koruna Risk Premium in a Multiple-Dealer FX Market," Working Papers 2003/04, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  10. Darvas, Zsolt & Szapary, Gyorgy, 2000. "Financial Contagion in Five Small Open Economies: Does the Exchange Rate Regime Really Matter?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 25-51, April.
  11. Beine, Michel & Laurent, Sebastien & Lecourt, Christelle, 2003. "Official central bank interventions and exchange rate volatility: Evidence from a regime-switching analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 891-911, October.
  12. Merton, Robert C., 1987. "A simple model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information," Working papers 1869-87., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  13. Devereux, Michael B. & Lane, Philip R., 2003. "Understanding bilateral exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 109-132, May.
  14. Lucio Sarno, 2003. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Models; A Selective Overview," IMF Working Papers 03/111, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Kobor, Adam & Szekely, Istvan P., 2004. "Foreign exchange market volatility in EU accession countries in the run-up to Euro adoption: weathering uncharted waters," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 337-352, December.
  16. Hamid Faruqee & Lee Redding, 1999. "Endogenous Liquidity Providers and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(4), pages 976-994, August.
  17. Helmut Stix, 2002. "Does Central Bank Intervention Influence the Probability of a Speculative Attack? Evidence from the EMS," Working Papers 80, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  18. repec:cup:macdyn:v:1:y:1997:i:3:p:640-57 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. repec:fth:wilfau:97-5 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Derviz, Alexis, 2004. "Asset return dynamics and the FX risk premium in a decentralized dealer market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 747-784, August.
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