Rational Speculation, Financial Crises, and Optimal Policy Responses
This paper develops a theory of the onset of financial crises by solving for the optimal trading strategies of speculators in financial markets, in a model where each speculator tries to coordinate her trades with the market's by observing the decisions of other speculators, while simultaneously trying to preempt the market. The interaction and resolution of these two conflicting incentives are analyzed under alternate central bank policy regimes. Our model explains how imperfect information structures prevent traders from exploiting profitable opportunities and suggests how large traders help alleviate this problem by undertaking risky arbitrage early in the investment process, in return for higher profits, if successful. The central bank's defense strategy is a parameter of this model. We compare the likelihood of a crisis under alternate defense strategies and show that credible monetary authorities can provide a better defense of exchange rate regimes against adverse shocks by not disclosing their commitment value to the market.
|Date of creation:||01 Feb 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bulow, Jeremy I. & Klemperer, Paul, 1991.
"Rational Frenzies and Crashes,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
593, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996.
"Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features," NBER Working Papers 5285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chamley, Christophe & Gale, Douglas, 1994.
"Information Revelation and Strategic Delay in a Model of Investment,"
Econometric Society, vol. 62(5), pages 1065-85, September.
- Gale, D. & Chamley, C., 1992. "Information Revelation and Strategic Delay in a Model of Investment," Papers 10, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Gale, D., 1992.
"Dynamic Coordiantion Games,"
13, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2002.
"Bubbles and crashes,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
24905, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Cooper, Russell & John, Andrew, 1988. "Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(3), pages 441-63, August.
- Aaron Tornell, 1999.
"Common Fundamentals in the Tequila and Asian Crises,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1868, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Aaron Tornell, 1999. "Common Fundamentals in the Tequila and Asian Crises," NBER Working Papers 7139, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Peter M. Garber & Michael G. Spencer, 1994. "Foreign Exchange Hedging with Synthetic Options and the Interest Rate Defense of a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime," IMF Working Papers 94/151, International Monetary Fund.
- Christophe Chamley, 2003. "Dynamic Speculative Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 603-621, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/25. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.