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Monetary Magic? How the Fed Improved the Flexibility of the U.S. Economy

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  • Tamim Bayoumi
  • Silvia Sgherri

Abstract

Extending recent theoretical contributions on sources of inflation inertia, we argue that monetary uncertainty accounts for sluggish expectations adjustment to nominal disturbances. Estimating a model in which rational individuals learn over time about shifts in U.S. monetary policy and the Phillips curve, we find strong evidence that this link exists. These results bring into question the standard approach for evaluating monetary rules by assuming unchanged private sector responses, help clarify the role of monetary stability in reducing output variability in the United States and elsewhere, and tell a subtle and dynamic story of the interaction between monetary policy and the supply side of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Tamim Bayoumi & Silvia Sgherri, 2004. "Monetary Magic? How the Fed Improved the Flexibility of the U.S. Economy," IMF Working Papers 04/24, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/24
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    Cited by:

    1. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2016. "The evolution of U.S. monetary policy: 2000–2007," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 78-93.
    2. Adam Posen & Daniel Popov Gould, 2006. "Has EMU had any Impact on the Degree of Wage Restraint?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1783, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Bayoumi, Tamim & Sgherri, Silvia, 2004. "Deconstructing the Art of Central Banking," CEPR Discussion Papers 4675, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Otmar Issing, 2005. "Speeding up European Reform: A Master Plan for the Lisbon Process - The Implementation of the Lisbon Agenda: A political priority," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 6(2), pages 31-35, August.
    5. Pau Rabanal, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules and the U.S. Business Cycle; Evidence and Implications," IMF Working Papers 04/164, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Benedetto Molinari, 2010. "Sticky Information and Inflation Persistence: Evidence from U.S. Data," Working Papers 10.09, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
    7. Benedetto Molinari, 2014. "Sticky information and inflation persistence: evidence from the U.S. data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 903-935, May.

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    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Inflation; United States; Inflation dynamics; Kalman filter; aggregate demand; real interest rate; monetary economics; Model Construction and Estimation;

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