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Managing Confidence in Emerging Market Bank Runs

  • Ashoka Mody
  • Se-Jik Kim

In a rational-expectations framework, we model depositors' confidence as a function of the probability of future bank bailouts. We analyze the effect of alternative bank bailout policies on depositors' confidence in an emerging market setting, where liquidity shortages of banks are revealed sequentially and governments cannot credibly commit to bailing out all potentially distressed banks. Our findings suggest that allowing early bank failures and using available liquidity for credible commitments to later bailouts can better boost confidence than early bailouts. This conclusion arises because with a high chance of liquidity shortage in the future, depositors may lose confidence and hence withdraw deposits even from potentially sound banks. Such a policy of late bailouts is likely to receive political support when a full bailout needs to be financed by taxation. The logic of late bailout remains valid even when banks may hide their distress or when closures of early distressed banks create contagion.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/235.

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Length: 29
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/235
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  1. Kenneth Kang & Hong Liang & Henry Ma & Anthony J. Richards & Ajai Chopra & Meral Karasulu, 2001. "From Crisis to Recovery in Korea; Strategy, Achievements, and Lessons," IMF Working Papers 01/154, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2001. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1155-1197, December.
  3. Lerrick, Adam & Meltzer, Allan H., 2003. "Blueprint for an international lender of last resort," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 289-303, January.
  4. Marc Quintyn & David S. Hoelscher, 2003. "Managing Systemic Banking Crises," IMF Occasional Papers 224, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Rajan, Raghuram G. & Tokatlidis, Ioannis, 2005. "Dollar Shortages and Crises," MPRA Paper 832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Haizhou Huang & Charles Goodhart, 1999. "A Simple Model of an International Lender of Last Resort," FMG Discussion Papers dp336, Financial Markets Group.
  7. Cordella, Tito & Yeyati, Eduardo Levy, 2003. "Bank bailouts: moral hazard vs. value effect," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 300-330, October.
  8. Ashoka Mody, 2004. "What is An Emerging Market?," IMF Working Papers 04/177, International Monetary Fund.
  9. C. A. E. Goodhart & H. Huang, 2000. "A Simple Model of an International Lender of Last Resort," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 29(1), pages 1-11, 02.
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