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Trade Finance and Trade Flows; Panel Data Evidence From 10 Crises

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  • Márcio Valério Ronci

Abstract

This paper assesses the effect of constrained trade finance on trade flows in countries undergoing financial and balance of payments crises. Most of the countries that had a major crisis had a significant trade contraction, while trade-related finance declined sharply. However, trade may also be affected by other variables such as world demand, domestic demand, banking crises, changes in export and import prices, and real exchange rate depreciation. To estimate the effect of constrained trade finance on trade flows, we estimate import and export volume equations including explicitly trade financing as an explanatory variable in addition to the usual variables such as relative prices and income. We conclude that constrained trade finance is a factor in explaining both export and import volumes in the short-run. A fall in external trade finance explains a relatively small part of the trade loss during crises, while a fall in trade financing in connection with domestic banking crisis can lead to a substantial loss of trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Márcio Valério Ronci, 2004. "Trade Finance and Trade Flows; Panel Data Evidence From 10 Crises," IMF Working Papers 04/225, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/225
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas Fullerton & W. Sawyer & Richard Sprinkle, 1999. "Latin American trade elasticities," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 23(2), pages 143-156, June.
    2. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    3. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics,in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
    4. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michalski, Tomasz & Ors, Evren, 2012. "(Interstate) Banking and (interstate) trade: Does real integration follow financial integration?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 89-117.
    2. Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2013. "Towards a theory of trade finance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 96-112.
    3. Nicolas Berman & José de Sousa & Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer, 2013. "Time to Ship during Financial Crises," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 225-260.
    4. Michalski, Tomasz & Ors, Evren, 2012. "(Interstate) Banking and (interstate) trade: Does real integration follow financial integration?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 89-117.
    5. Nicolas Berman and Philippe Martin, 2010. "The Vulnerability Of Sub-Saharan Africa To The Financial Crisis: The Case Of Trade," RSCAS Working Papers 2010/15, European University Institute.
    6. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2013. "Measuring financial stress in transition economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 597-611.
    7. Sangyeon Hwang & Hyejoon Im, 2017. "International Trade Finance and Exports: Evidence from Korean Bank-Intermediated Trade Finance Instruments," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 319-346, April.
    8. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin, 2012. "The Vulnerability of Sub-Saharan Africa to Financial Crises: The Case of Trade," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(3), pages 329-364, September.
    9. Reza Y Siregar & C.S. Lim, Vincent, 2011. "Real Sector Propogation of the Recent Global Financial Crisis," Research Studies, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number rp82.
    10. Marcel Kohler & Adrian Saville, 2011. "Measuring the Impact of Trade Finance on South African Export Flows," Working Papers 232, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    11. Goohoon Kwon & Raphael A Espinoza, 2009. "Regional Financial Integration in the Caribbean; Evidence From Financial and Macroeconomic Data," IMF Working Papers 09/139, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel & Kenc, Turalay, 2013. "Measuring financial stress in Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 370-383.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crisis; Trade finance; Trade flows; crisis; equations; statistics; logarithm; export volumes; Trade: General; International Finance: General;

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