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Currency Bloc Formation as a Dynamic Process Based on Trade Network Externalities

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  • Etienne B Yehoue

Abstract

The recent experience of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has stimulated the debate over currency union and reinforced the incentive for the emergence of currency blocs in other regions of the world. This paper builds a dynamic stochastic model-based on network externalities operating through trade channels-to explain the emergence of currency blocs, and specifically, why some countries join a currency union earlier than others. The paper develops and formalizes the intuition that currency bloc formation is path dependent, and that countries join currency blocs sooner the more they trade with the bloc member countries, with each additional member serving in a dynamic way to attract more members into the bloc. Evidence from the current pattern of EMU expansion supports the model, which is later used to elaborate on the pattern of further expansion of the union.

Suggested Citation

  • Etienne B Yehoue, 2004. "Currency Bloc Formation as a Dynamic Process Based on Trade Network Externalities," IMF Working Papers 04/222, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/222
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Konishi, Hideo & Ray, Debraj, 2003. "Coalition formation as a dynamic process," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 1-41, May.
    4. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, April.
    5. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 72.
    6. Flandreau, Marc, 1995. "An Essay on the Emergence of the International Gold Standard, 1870-80," CEPR Discussion Papers 1210, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Bogomolnaia, Anna & Jackson, Matthew O., 2002. "The Stability of Hedonic Coalition Structures," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 201-230, February.
    8. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "National and International Returns to Scale in the Modern Theory of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 389-405, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Meissner, Christopher M. & Oomes, Nienke, 2009. "Why do countries peg the way they peg? The determinants of anchor currency choice," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, pages 522-547.
    2. Fischer, Christoph, 2016. "Determining global currency bloc equilibria: An empirical strategy based on estimates of anchor currency choice," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 214-238.
    3. Fischer, Christoph, 2015. "Determining global currency bloc equilibria," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113197, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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