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Exchange Rates in Central Europe; A Blessing o+L2762r a Curse?

  • Louis Kuijs
  • Alain Borghijs
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    Central European accession countries (CECs) are currently considering when to adopt the euro. From the perspective of macroeconomic stabilization, the cost or benefit of giving up a flexible exchange rate depends on the types of asymmetric shocks hitting the economy and the ability of the exchange rate to act as a shock absorber. Economic theory suggests that flexible exchange rates are useful in absorbing asymmetric real shocks but unhelpful in the case of monetary and financial shocks. For five CECs-the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, the Slovak Republic, and Slovenia-empirical results on the basis of a structural VAR suggest that in the CECs the exchange rate appears to have served as much or more as an unhelpful propagator of monetary and financial shocks than as a useful absorber of real shocks.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/2.

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    Length: 29
    Date of creation: 01 Jan 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/2
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    1. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2002. "Exchange Rates and Adjustment: Perspectives from the New Open Economy Macroeconomics," CEPR Discussion Papers 3533, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Carlos A. Végh, 1996. "Disinflation and The Recession-Now-versus-Recession-Later Hypothesis: Evidence from Uruguay," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(2), pages 355-394, June.
    3. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations: how important are nominal shocks?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
    5. W.H. Buiter, 1995. "Macroeconomic Policy During a Transition to Monetary Union," CEP Discussion Papers dp0261, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Enders, Walter & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1997. "Accounting for real and nominal exchange rate movements in the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 233-254, April.
    7. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Vallés Liberal, Javier & Viñals, José, 1996. "Do Exchange Rates Move to Address International Macroeconomic Imbalances?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1498, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Charles Engel, 2002. "The Responsiveness of Consumer Prices to Exchange Rates And the Implications for Exchange-Rate Policy: A Survey Of a Few Recent New Open-Economy..," NBER Working Papers 8725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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