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Monetary Policy Rules and the U.S. Business Cycle: Evidence and Implications

  • Pau Rabanal

This paper estimates Taylor-type interest rates for the United States allowing for both time and state dependence. It provides evidence that the coefficients of the Taylor rule change significantly over time, and that the behavior of the Federal Reserve over the cycle can be explained using a two-state switching regime model. During expansions, the Federal Reserve follows a rule that can be characterized as inflation targeting with a high degree of interest rate smoothing. During recessions, the Federal Reserve targets output growth and conducts policy in a more active manner. The implications of conducting this type of policy are analyzed in a small scale new Keynesian model.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/164.

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Length: 27
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/164
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  1. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
  2. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  3. Galí, Jordi & Rabanal, Pau, 2004. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBC Model Fit Post-War US Data?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4522, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Frank Schorfheide, 2003. "Learning and monetary policy shifts," Working Paper 2003-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  5. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2003. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," NBER Working Papers 9459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. J. J. Dolado & R. Maria-Dolores & F. J. Ruge-Murcia, 2002. "Nonlinear Monetary Policy Rules: Some New Evidence For The Us," Economics Working Papers we022910, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  7. Tamim Bayoumi & Silvia Sgherri, 2004. "Monetary Magic? How the Fed Improved the Flexibility of the U.S. Economy," IMF Working Papers 04/24, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Jordi Gali & Pau Rabanal, 2004. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBS Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data?," NBER Working Papers 10636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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