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Russia and the WTO; The "Gravity" of Outsider Status

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  • Yaroslav D Lissovolik
  • Bogdan Lissovolik

Abstract

With China's accession to the WTO in 2001, Russia is by far that organization's most prominent nonmember. This paper applies the gravity model to gauge whether this "outsider" status has been affecting Russia's export structure. On the basis of cross-section and panel regressions for 1995-2002, we find that Russian exports to WTO members have fallen short of the model's predictions. The paper discusses possible explanations of this result, including Russia's exclusion from various WTO procedures, although own-export restrictions could have a similar effect. The model points to Russia's further trade reorientation toward WTO members after a putative accession. Our results also prompt some ideas that may resolve the recent empirical controversy over the WTO's overall role in promoting trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Yaroslav D Lissovolik & Bogdan Lissovolik, 2004. "Russia and the WTO; The "Gravity" of Outsider Status," IMF Working Papers 04/159, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/159
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew K. Rose, 2004. "Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 98-114, March.
    2. Laszlo Matyas, 1997. "Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 363-368, May.
    3. Subramanian, Arvind & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2007. "The WTO promotes trade, strongly but unevenly," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 151-175, May.
    4. Olivier Blanchard & Michael Kremer, 1997. "Disorganization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1091-1126.
    5. Eromenko, Igor & Mankovska, Nadiya & Dean, James W, 2003. "Will WTO membership really improve market access for Ukrainian exports?," MPRA Paper 67481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Alexander Alekseev & Natalia Tourdyeva & Ksenia Yudaeva, 2003. "Estimation of the Russia’s trade policy options with the help of the Computable General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers w0042, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    7. Wang, Zhen Kun & Winters, L. Alan, 1991. "The Trading Potential of Eastern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sergey Kolesnikov & Olga Podkorytova, 2011. "Russia's Trade Flows and WTO," EUSP Department of Economics Working Paper Series Ec-06/11, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics, revised 01 Jul 2011.
    2. Greenaway, David & Mahabir, Aruneema & Milner, Chris, 2008. "Has China displaced other Asian countries' exports?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 152-169, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russian Federation; Trade; WTO; gravity model; Russia; dummy variable; trade restrictions; trading partners; statistics; import duties; Country and Industry Studies of Trade; Trade and Environment;

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