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Are Developing Countries Better Off Spending Their Oil Wealth Upfront?

Author

Listed:
  • H. Takizawa
  • E. H. Gardner
  • Kenichi Ueda

Abstract

We question the conventional view that it is optimal for government to maintain a stable level of spending out of oil wealth. We compare this conventional policy recommendation with one where government spends all of its oil revenues upfront, at the same rate as oil is extracted. Using a neoclassical growth model with positive external effects of public spending on consumption and productivity, we find that, if the economy is growing along the steady-state balanced path, the conventional view is validated. However, if the economy starts with a lower capital stock, the welfare ranking across two policies can be reversed.

Suggested Citation

  • H. Takizawa & E. H. Gardner & Kenichi Ueda, 2004. "Are Developing Countries Better Off Spending Their Oil Wealth Upfront?," IMF Working Papers 04/141, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/141
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tsani, Stella, 2013. "Natural resources, governance and institutional quality: The role of resource funds," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 181-195.
    2. Christine J. Richmond & Irene Yackovlev & Susan S. Yang, 2013. "Investing Volatile Oil Revenues in Capital-Scarce Economies; An Application to Angola," IMF Working Papers 13/147, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Jan-Peter Olters & Daniel Leigh, 2006. "Natural-Resource Depletion, Habit Formation, and Sustainable Fiscal Policy; Lessons from Gabon," IMF Working Papers 06/193, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Toto Same, Achille, 2008. "Mineral-rich countries and dutch disease : understanding the macroeconomic implications of windfalls and the development prospects-the case of Equatorial Guinea," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4595, The World Bank.
    5. Cherif, Reda & Hasanov, Fuad, 2013. "Oil Exporters’ Dilemma: How Much to Save and How Much to Invest," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 120-131.
    6. Toto Same, Achille, 2009. "Transforming natural resource wealth into sustained growth and poverty reduction : a conceptual framework for Sub-Saharan African oil exporting countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4852, The World Bank.
    7. World Bank, 2013. "Repbulic of Chad Poverty Notes : Dynamics of Poverty and Inequality following the Rise of the Oil Sector," World Bank Other Operational Studies 19322, The World Bank.
    8. Jan-Peter Olters, 2007. "Old Curses, New Approaches? Fiscal Benchmarks for Oil-Producing Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 07/107, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Peter Wierts & Guido Schotten, 2008. "Dutch natural Gas Revenues and Fiscal Policy: Theory versus Practice," DNB Occasional Studies 605, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    10. Xin Xu & Ahmed El-Ashram & Judith Gold, 2015. "Too Much of a Good Thing? Prudent Management of Inflows under Economic Citizenship Programs," IMF Working Papers 15/93, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Jiří Sýkora, 2013. "Oil in Timor-Leste: A Ticket to Prosperity?," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2013(3), pages 68-85.
    12. Antonio Spilimbergo, 2007. "Measuring the Performance of Fiscal Policy in Russia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 25-44, November.
    13. Torfinn Harding & Frederick Van der Ploeg, 2009. "Is Norway's Bird-in-Hand Stabilization Fund Prudent Enough? Fiscal Reactions to Hydrocarbon Windfalls and Graying Populations," CESifo Working Paper Series 2830, CESifo Group Munich.
    14. Christine Richmond & Irene Yackovlev & Shu-Chun S. Yang, 2015. "Investing Volatile Resource Revenues in Capital-Scarce Economies," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 193-221, February.
    15. Alonso A Segura Vasi, 2006. "Management of Oil Wealth Under the Permanent Income Hypothesis; The Case of São Tomé and Príncipe," IMF Working Papers 06/183, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Araujo, Juliana D. & Li, Bin Grace & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2016. "Current account norms in natural resource rich and capital scarce economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 144-156.
    17. Toto Same, Achille, 2008. "Windfall management for poverty reduction : improving public finance Management-the case of Chad," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4596, The World Bank.
    18. Keyra Primus, 2016. "Fiscal Rules for Resource Windfall Allocation; The Case of Trinidad and Tobago," IMF Working Papers 16/188, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Jens R Clausen, 2008. "Calculating Sustainable Non-mineral Balances as Benchmarks for Fiscal Policy; The Case of Botswana," IMF Working Papers 08/117, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Stéphane Carcillo & Mauricio Villafuerte & Daniel Leigh, 2007. "Catch-Up Growth, Habits, Oil Depletion, and Fiscal Policy; Lessons from the Republic of Congo," IMF Working Papers 07/80, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Issouf Samaké & Priscilla S Muthoora & Bruno Versailles, 2013. "Fiscal Sustainability, Public Investment, and Growth in Natural Resource-Rich, Low-Income Countries; The Case of Cameroon," IMF Working Papers 13/144, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Jean-Luc Hélis & Teresa Daban Sanchez, 2010. "A Public Financial Management Framework for Resources-Producing Countries," IMF Working Papers 10/72, International Monetary Fund.

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