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How Private Creditors Fared in Emerging Debt Markets, 1970-2000

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  • Jeronimo Zettelmeyer
  • Beatrice Weder
  • Christoph A Klingen

Abstract

We estimate ex post returns to emerging market debt by combining secondary-market prices with observed flows based on World Bank data. From 1970-2000, returns averaged 9 percent per annum, about the same as returns on a ten-year U.S. treasury bond. This reflects the combined effect of the 1980s debt crisis and much higher returns during 1989-2000. Annual returns since 1986 have been less volatile than emerging market equity returns but more volatile than returns on U.S. corporate or high-yield bonds. However, unlike returns on these bonds, emerging market debt returns do not seem significantly correlated with U.S. or world stock markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeronimo Zettelmeyer & Beatrice Weder & Christoph A Klingen, 2004. "How Private Creditors Fared in Emerging Debt Markets, 1970-2000," IMF Working Papers 04/13, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/13
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Goetzmann, William N. & Jorion, Philippe, 1999. "Re-Emerging Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 1-32, March.
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    5. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Jeronimo Zettelmeyer & Isabel Schnabel, 2002. "Moral Hazard and International Crisis Lending; A Test," IMF Working Papers 02/181, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Michael Dooley & Richard D. Haas & Steven Symansky, 1993. "A Note on Burden Sharing among Creditors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 226-232, March.
    7. K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 1999. "Local Return Factors and Turnover in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1439-1464, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ashoka Mody, 2004. "What is An Emerging Market?," IMF Working Papers 04/177, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Fernando A. Broner & Guido Lorenzoni & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2013. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 67-100, January.
    3. Ricardo Hausmann & Federico Sturzenegger, 2006. "Global Imbalances or Bad Accounting? The Missing Dark Matter in the Wealth of Nations," CID Working Papers 124, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    4. Lizarazo, Sandra Valentina, 2013. "Default risk and risk averse international investors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 317-330.
    5. Klaus Adam & Michael Grill, 2017. "Optimal Sovereign Default," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 128-164, January.
    6. Olivier Jeanne & Romain Rancière, 2011. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves For Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 905-930, September.
    7. Michael Tomz & Mark L.J. Wright, 2013. "Empirical Research on Sovereign Debt and Default," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 247-272, May.
    8. Michael Bleaney & Veronica Veleanu, 2017. "Currency risk in corporate bond spreads in the eurozone," Discussion Papers 2017/07, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    9. Michael Grill & Klaus Adam, 2012. "Optimal Sovereign Debt Default," 2012 Meeting Papers 882, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. James M. Boughton, 2005. "Does the World Need a Universal Financial Institution?," IMF Working Papers 05/116, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Juan J. Cruces & Christoph Trebesch, 2013. "Sovereign Defaults: The Price of Haircuts," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 85-117, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Algeria; Argentina; Brazil; Capital flows; Chile; Colombia; Debt; Ecuador; Sovereign debt; Peru; Philippines; Panama; Pakistan; Indonesia; Malaysia; Lebanon; Korea; Republic of; Jordan; Mexico; Nigeria; Morocco; Thailand; Turkey; Venezuela; crises; returns capital flows; bonds; bond; creditors; debt stock; debt crises; returns;

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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