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The Empirics of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets; The Cases of Mexico and Turkey

  • Cem Karacadag
  • Roberto Pereira Guimarães
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    This paper analyzes the effects of intervention on the level and volatility of the exchange rate in Mexico and Turkey, two emerging countries that have floating exchange rate regimes. The paper finds mixed evidence on the effectiveness of intervention. In Mexico, foreign exchange sales have a small impact on the exchange rate level and raise short-term volatility, while in Turkey, intervention does not appear to affect the exchange rate level but reduces its shortterm volatility. In both cases, the findings are consistent with officially stated policy objectives, which aim to minimize the effect of intervention on the exchange rate, but cast doubt on claims that intervention is a useful tool for smoothing volatility. Although these findings cannot be generalized to other emerging markets, intervention's apparently limited effectiveness highlights the need for central banks to use their scarce foreign reserves selectively and parsimoniously.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 04/123.

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    Length: 33
    Date of creation: 01 Jul 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/123
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    1. Ilker Domac & Alfonso Mendoza, 2002. "Is there Room for Forex Interventions under Inflation Targeting Framework? Evidence from Mexico and Turkey," Discussion Papers 0206, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Takatoshi Ito, 2002. "Is Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective?: The Japanese Experiences in the 1990s," NBER Working Papers 8914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Pedro Aspe Armella & Rudiger Dornbusch & Maurice Obstfeld, 1983. "Financial Policies and the World Capital Market: The Problem of Latin American Countries," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number arme83-1.
    4. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1998. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 161-190, February.
    5. Christopher J. Neely, 2001. "The practice of central bank intervention: looking under the hood," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 1-10.
    6. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2001. "Why do countries float the way they float?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 387-414, December.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Fatum, Rasmus, 2000. "On the effectiveness of sterilized foreign exchange intervention," Working Paper Series 0010, European Central Bank.
    10. Kim, Soyoung, 2003. "Monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention, and the exchange rate in a unifying framework," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 355-386, August.
    11. Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko, 2003. "Foreign Exchange Intervention in Developing and Transition Economies; Results of a Survey," IMF Working Papers 03/95, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Hong Liang & Paul Cashin & Hali J. Edison, 2003. "Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Australian Dollar; Has it Mattered?," IMF Working Papers 03/99, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Engel, C., 1995. "Why is the Foreward Exchange Rate Forecast Based? A Survey of Recent Evidence," Working Papers 95-08, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    14. Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael M., 2003. "Effectiveness of Official Daily Foreign Exchange Market Intervention Operations in Japan," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2883n7z5, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    15. Martin D. D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-288, University of California at Berkeley.
    16. Hung, Juann H, 1997. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 779-793, September.
    17. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
    18. Matías Tapia & Andrea Tokman, 2004. "Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention under Public Information: The Chilean Case," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
    19. Andrea Bubula & Inci Ötker, 2002. "The Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes Since 1990; Evidence From De Facto Policies," IMF Working Papers 02/155, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1999. "Macroeconomic Implications of the Beliefs and Behavior of Foreign Exchange Traders," NBER Working Papers 7417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Mark P. Taylor, 1991. "Intervention, Interest Rates, and Charts; Three Essays in International Finance," IMF Working Papers 91/106, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Edison, H.J., 1993. "The Effectiveness of Central-Bank Intervention: A Survey of the Litterature after 1982," Princeton Studies in International Economics 18, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    23. Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko & Cem Karacadag & Roberto Pereira Guimarães, 2003. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market; Elements of Best Practice," IMF Working Papers 03/152, International Monetary Fund.
    24. corrinne ho & robert n mccauley, 2004. "Living with flexible exchange rates:," International Finance 0411003, EconWPA.
    25. Baillie, Richard T. & Osterberg, William P., 1997. "Why do central banks intervene?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 909-919, December.
    26. Corrinne Ho & Robert N. McCauley, 2003. "Living with flexible exchange rates: issues and recent experience in inflation targeting emerging market economies," BIS Working Papers 130, Bank for International Settlements.
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