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The Empirics of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets; The Cases of Mexico and Turkey

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  • Cem Karacadag
  • Roberto Pereira Guimarães

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of intervention on the level and volatility of the exchange rate in Mexico and Turkey, two emerging countries that have floating exchange rate regimes. The paper finds mixed evidence on the effectiveness of intervention. In Mexico, foreign exchange sales have a small impact on the exchange rate level and raise short-term volatility, while in Turkey, intervention does not appear to affect the exchange rate level but reduces its shortterm volatility. In both cases, the findings are consistent with officially stated policy objectives, which aim to minimize the effect of intervention on the exchange rate, but cast doubt on claims that intervention is a useful tool for smoothing volatility. Although these findings cannot be generalized to other emerging markets, intervention's apparently limited effectiveness highlights the need for central banks to use their scarce foreign reserves selectively and parsimoniously.

Suggested Citation

  • Cem Karacadag & Roberto Pereira Guimarães, 2004. "The Empirics of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets; The Cases of Mexico and Turkey," IMF Working Papers 04/123, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/123
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    Cited by:

    1. Berganza, Juan Carlos & Broto, Carmen, 2012. "Flexible inflation targets, forex interventions and exchange rate volatility in emerging countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 428-444.
    2. Cem Payaslioglu, 2009. "A tail index tour across foreign exchange rate regimes in Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 381-397.
    3. Yasin Kursat Onder & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2015. "Simultaneous Monetary Policies in the Context of the Trilemma: Evidence from the Central Bank of Turkey," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 013203, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    4. Lukas Menkhoff, 2013. "Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets: A Survey of Empirical Studies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1187-1208, September.
    5. Andrey G. Shulgin, 2017. "A Simple Theoretical Setup for the Evaluation of Sterilized Intervention Effectiveness in a Small Open Commodity Exporting Economy," HSE Working papers WP BRP 170/EC/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    6. Olivier Blanchard & Gustavo Adler & Irineu de Carvalho Filho, 2015. "Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?," Working Paper Series WP15-18, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    7. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Chamon, Marcos, 2016. "Two targets, two instruments: Monetary and exchange rate policies in emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 172-196.
    8. Marjan Petreski, 2009. "A Critique On Inflation Targeting," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 11-24, December.
    9. Cüneyt Akar & Serkan Çiçek, 2016. "“New” monetary policy instruments and exchange rate volatility," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(1), pages 141-165, February.
    10. Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Identifying The Effects Of Simultaneous Monetary Policy Shocks," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(2), pages 268-296, April.
    11. Cavusoglu Nevin, 2011. "Exchange Rates and the Effectiveness of Actual and Oral Official Interventions: A Survey on Findings, Issues and Policy Implications," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-42, January.
    12. Katusiime, Lorna & Shamsuddin, Abul & Agbola, Frank W., 2015. "Macroeconomic and market microstructure modelling of Ugandan exchange rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 175-186.
    13. Brause, Alexander, 2008. "Foreign exchange interventions in emerging market countries: New lessons from Argentina," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 79, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
    14. Ozge Akinci & Olcay Yucel Culha & Umit Ozlale & Gulbin Sahinbeyoğlu, 2006. "The effectiveness of foreign exchange interventions under a floating exchange rate regime for the Turkish economy: a post-crisis period analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(12), pages 1371-1388.

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    Keywords

    Central banks and their policies; Foreign exchange; Mexico; Turkey; Central bank intervention; foreign exchange market; capital flow; exchange rate; exchange rate volatility; foreign exchange sales;

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