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Why India Can Grow At 7 Percent a Year or More; Projections and Reflections

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  • Dani Rodrik
  • Arvind Subramanian

Abstract

Using a simple growth accounting framework, we project India's future potential output growth rate through 2025. We argue that there is perhaps more upside potential than downside risks to our central estimate of annual growth, which is close to 7 percent for aggregate output, or 5.5 percent for output per capita.

Suggested Citation

  • Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian, 2004. "Why India Can Grow At 7 Percent a Year or More; Projections and Reflections," IMF Working Papers 04/118, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/118
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
    2. Paul Cashin & Ratna Sahay, 1996. "Internal Migration, Center-State Grants, and Economic Growth in the States of India," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 123-171, March.
    3. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "From "Hindu Growth" to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(2), pages 193-228, September.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Felipe, Jesus & Laviña, Editha & Fan, Emma Xiaoqin, 2008. "The Diverging Patterns of Profitability, Investment and Growth of China and India During 1980-2003," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 741-774, May.
    2. Sabyasachi Kar & Debajit Jha & Alpana Kateja, 2011. "Club-convergence and polarization of states: A nonparametric analysis of post-reform India," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 53-72, April.
    3. Hiroko Oura, 2007. "Wild or Tamed?; India’s Potential Growth," IMF Working Papers 07/224, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Kochhar, Kalpana & Kumar, Utsav & Rajan, Raghuram & Subramanian, Arvind & Tokatlidis, Ioannis, 2006. "India's pattern of development: What happened, what follows?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(5), pages 981-1019, July.
    5. Ajit Singh & Sukti Dasgupta, 2005. "Will services be the new engine of economic growth in India?," Working Papers wp310, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge.
    6. Amin, Mohammad & Mattoo, Aaditya, 2008. "Human capital and the changing structure of the Indian economy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4576, The World Bank.
    7. Nombulelo Braiton, 2007. "Sri Lanka’s Sources of Growth," IMF Working Papers 07/225, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Geoffrey N. Keim & Beth Anne Wilson, 2007. "India's future: it's about jobs," International Finance Discussion Papers 913, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Kaushik Basu & Annemie Maertens, 2007. "The pattern and causes of economic growth in India," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 143-167, Summer.
    10. Sahu, Santosh & Narayanan, K, 2009. "Determinants of Energy Intensity: A Preliminary Investigation of Indian Manufacturing," MPRA Paper 16606, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Kaushik Basu, 2010. "Asian Century: A Comparative Analysis of Growth in China, India and other Asian Economies," Working Papers id:3277, eSocialSciences.
    12. Singh, Nirvikar, 2006. "Services-Led Industrialization in India: Assessment and Lessons," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt8jn2b8z6, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    13. Kaliappa Kalirajan & Kanhaiya Singh, 2013. "Understanding Sectoral Economic Growth in India: The Potential for Services," Institutions and Economies (formerly known as International Journal of Institutions and Economies), Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya, vol. 5(1), pages 91-112, April.
    14. repec:bla:apacel:v:31:y:2017:i:2:p:137-145 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Banerjee, Rajabrata & Roy, Saikat Sinha, 2014. "Human capital, technological progress and trade: What explains India's long run growth?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 15-31.
    16. Mazumdar, Surajit, 2008. "Investment and growth in India under liberalization: Asymmetries and Instabilities," MPRA Paper 19629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. B. Bhaskara Rao & Artur Tamazian, 2011. "A simultaneous equations model of finance and growth: FIML estimates for India," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(25), pages 3699-3708.
    18. Hiroko Oura, 2008. "Financial Development and Growth in India; A Growing Tiger in a Cage?," IMF Working Papers 08/79, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Agarwal, Manmohan & Whalley, John, 2013. "The 1991 Reforms, Indian Economic Growth, and Social Progress," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 128, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    20. Kaushik Basu, 2008. "The Enigma of India," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(2), pages 396-406, June.

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