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Obstacles to Disinflation; What is the Role of Fiscal Expectations?

Author

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  • R. G Gelos
  • Alessandro Prati
  • Oya Celasun

Abstract

Is backward-looking behavior in pricing or imperfect credibility of stabilization efforts responsible for the failure of inflation rates to decline to targeted levels during many disinflation programs? This paper assesses the relative importance of these two factors during a number of disinflation attempts in developing and transition economies. Using survey data, we find that expectations of future inflation play a much more important role than past inflation in shaping the inflation process. We also find that an improvement in primary fiscal balances significantly reduces inflation expectations. This suggests that during stabilization episodes, priority should be given to building fiscal credibility by strengthening public finances.

Suggested Citation

  • R. G Gelos & Alessandro Prati & Oya Celasun, 2004. "Obstacles to Disinflation; What is the Role of Fiscal Expectations?," IMF Working Papers 04/111, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/111
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gelos, Gaston & Ustyugova, Yulia, 2017. "Inflation responses to commodity price shocks – How and why do countries differ?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 28-47.
    2. Juan José Echavarría & Luis Fernando Melo & Mauricio Villamizar, 2014. "The Impact of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Colombia. An Event Study Approach," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE, November.
    3. Alessandro Rebucci & Marco Rossi, 2004. "Measuring Disinflation Credibility in Emerging Markets; A Bayesian Approach with An Application to Turkey," IMF Working Papers 04/208, International Monetary Fund.
    4. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2006:i:11:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Juan José Echavarría & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Mauricio Villamizar, 2013. "The Impact of Different Types of Foreign Exchange Intervention: An Event Study Approach," Borradores de Economia 784, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Hakan Kara & Defne Mutluer, 2008. "Expectations, Communication and Monetary Policy in Turkey," Working Papers 0801, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    7. Selva Demiralp & Hakan Kara & Pýnar Özlü, 2011. "Monetary policy communication under inflation targeting: Do words speak louder than actions?," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1128, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    8. A. Hakan Kara, 2008. "Turkish Experience With Implicit Inflation Targeting," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Uruguay; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 14/7, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Martin Cerisola & Gaston Gelos, 2009. "What drives inflation expectations in Brazil? An empirical analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(10), pages 1215-1227.
    11. Joerg Bibow, 2006. "Inflation Persistence and Tax-Push Inflation in Germany and in the Euro Area: A Symptom of Macroeconomic Mismanagement?," IMK Studies 01-2006, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    12. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Inflation Targeting Lite' in Small Open Economies; The Case of Mauritius," IMF Working Papers 05/172, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Alessandro Rebucci & Marco Rossi, 2006. "Measuring Disinflation Credibility in Emerging Markets: A Bayesian Approach with an Application to Turkey's IMF-Supported Program," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(11), pages 1-8.
    14. Luiz De Mello & Diego Moccero, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Expectations in Latin America: Long-Run Effects and Volatility Spillovers," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(8), pages 1671-1690, December.

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