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Challenging the Empirical Evidence From Present Value Models of the Current Account

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  • Jacques A Miniane
  • Benoît Mercereau

Abstract

Under near-singularity conditions typically generated by persistence in current account data the predictions of present value models become extremely sensitive to small sample estimation error. Moreover, traditional Wald tests will distort the likelihood that the model is true. Using OECD data we find that: (i) the Wald test often leads to the wrong inference compared to a valid test; (ii) in all cases posterior distributions of the predicted series and associated correlation coefficients and variance ratios are very wide. In particular, one cannot draw any firm conclusion regarding excess current account volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacques A Miniane & Benoît Mercereau, 2004. "Challenging the Empirical Evidence From Present Value Models of the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 04/106, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/106
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jonathan David Ostry, 1997. "Current Account Imbalances in AsEAN Countries; Are they a Problem?," IMF Working Papers 97/51, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics,in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799 Elsevier.
    3. Kim Kunhong & Hall Viv & Buckle Robert, "undated". "New Zealand's Current Account Deficit: Analysis based on the Intertemporal Optimisation Approach," EcoMod2002 330800040, EcoMod.
    4. Nason, James M. & Rogers, John H., 2006. "The present-value model of the current account has been rejected: Round up the usual suspects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 159-187, January.
    5. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C John, 1998. "Are Australia's Current Account Deficits Excessive?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 346-361, December.
    6. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1994. "The term structure spread and future changes in long and short rates in the G7 countries: Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-283, April.
    7. Gruber, Joseph W., 2004. "A present value test of habits and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1495-1507, October.
    8. Sheffrin, Steven M. & Woo, Wing Thye, 1990. "Present value tests of an intertemporal model of the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 237-253, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Campa, Jose Manuel & Gavilan, Angel, 2011. "Current accounts in the euro area: An intertemporal approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 205-228, February.
    2. Michele Ca' Zorzi & Michał Rubaszek, 2012. "On the Empirical Evidence of the Intertemporal Current Account Model for the Euro Area Countries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 95-106, February.
    3. Anthony Makin & Wei Zhang & Grant Scobie, 2009. "The contribution of foreign borrowing to the New Zealand economy," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 263-278.
    4. José M. Campa & Ángel Gavilán, 2006. "Current accounts in the euro area: An intertemporal approach," Working Papers 0638, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    5. Ayla Ogus & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2008. "On the optimality and sustainability of Turkey’s current account," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 543-568, November.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "New Zealand; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 06/161, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Neil Dias Karunaratne, 2008. "The Polemics and Empirics of the Sustainability of Australia’s Current Account Deficit - Revisited," Discussion Papers Series 364, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    8. Karunaratne, Neil Dias, 2010. "The sustainability of Australia's current account deficits--A reappraisal after the global financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 81-97, January.
    9. Sebastián Edwards, 2007. "On Current Account Surpluses and the Correction of Global Imbalances," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 440, Central Bank of Chile.
    10. Anella Munro & Rishab Sethi, 2006. "The Present Value Model and New Zealand’s Current Account," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/12, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    11. Tarlok Singh, 2007. "Intertemporal Optimizing Models Of Trade And Current Account Balance: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 25-64, February.
    12. Makin, Anthony J. & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2011. "Have domestic or foreign factors driven European external imbalances?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 537-546, April.

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