Challenging the Empirical Evidence From Present Value Models of the Current Account
Under near-singularity conditions typically generated by persistence in current account data the predictions of present value models become extremely sensitive to small sample estimation error. Moreover, traditional Wald tests will distort the likelihood that the model is true. Using OECD data we find that: (i) the Wald test often leads to the wrong inference compared to a valid test; (ii) in all cases posterior distributions of the predicted series and associated correlation coefficients and variance ratios are very wide. In particular, one cannot draw any firm conclusion regarding excess current account volatility.
|Date of creation:||01 Jun 2004|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- C. John McDermott & Paul Cashin, 1996.
"Are Australia's Current Account Deficits Excessive?,"
IMF Working Papers
- Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C John, 1998. "Are Australia's Current Account Deficits Excessive?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 346-361, December.
- Cashin, P., 1996. "Are Australia's Current Account deficits Excessive?," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 533, The University of Melbourne.
- Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1994.
"The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account,"
Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers
233395, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
- Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 1994. "The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-044, University of California at Berkeley.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994. "The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 4893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nason, James M. & Rogers, John H., 2006.
"The present-value model of the current account has been rejected: Round up the usual suspects,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 159-187, January.
- James M. Nason & John H. Rogers, 2003. "The present-value model of the current account has been rejected: round up the usual suspects," International Finance Discussion Papers 760, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- James M. Nason & John H. Rogers, 2003. "The present-value model of the current account has been rejected: Round up the usual suspects," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- James M. Nason and John H. Rogers, 2001. "The Present Value Model of the Current Account Has Been Rejected: Round Up the Usual Subjects," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 102, Society for Computational Economics.
- Sheffrin, Steven M. & Woo, Wing Thye, 1990.
"Present value tests of an intertemporal model of the current account,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 237-253, November.
- Sheffrin, S.M. & Woo, W.T., 1989. "Present Value Tests Of An Intertemporal Model Of The Current Account," Papers 61, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
- Kunhong Kim & Viv B Hall & Robert A Buckle, 2001.
"New Zealand's Current Account Deficit: Analysis based on the Intertemporal Optimisation Approach,"
Treasury Working Paper Series
01/02, New Zealand Treasury.
- Kim Kunhong & Hall Viv & Buckle Robert, "undated". "New Zealand's Current Account Deficit: Analysis based on the Intertemporal Optimisation Approach," EcoMod2002 330800040, EcoMod.
- Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1994. "The term structure spread and future changes in long and short rates in the G7 countries: Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-283, April.
- Jonathan David Ostry, 1997. "Current Account Imbalances in AsEAN Countries; Are they a Problem?," IMF Working Papers 97/51, .
- Gruber, Joseph W., 2004. "A present value test of habits and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1495-1507, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:04/106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.