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Pick Your Poison; The Exchange Rate Regime and Capital Account Volatility in Emerging Markets

  • Shigeru Iwata
  • Evan Tanner

We characterize a country's exchange rate regime by how its central bank channels a capital account shock across three variables: exchange depreciation, interest rates, and international reserve flows. Structural vector autoregression estimates for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey reveal such responses, both contemporaneously and over time. Capital account shocks are further shown to affect output growth and inflation. The nature and magnitude of these effects may depend on the exchange rate regime.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/92.

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Length: 28
Date of creation: 01 May 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/92
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  1. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Kim, Soyoung, 2003. "Monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention, and the exchange rate in a unifying framework," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 355-386, August.
  4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of death foretold," International Finance Discussion Papers 545, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Sebastian Edwards, 2000. "Capital Flows, Real Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: Some Latin American Experiences," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 197-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. David O. Cushman & Tao Zha, 1995. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Working Paper 95-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  8. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1996. "The new wave of private capital inflows: Push or pull?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 389-418, March.
  9. By May Khamis & Alfredo M. Leone, 2001. "Can Currency Demand Be Stable Under a Financial Crisis? The Case of Mexico," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(2), pages 6.
  10. Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo Calvo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America; The Role of External Factors," IMF Working Papers 92/62, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Végh, 2002. "Living with the Fear of Floating: An Optimal Policy Perspective," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 663-704 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Kloek, Tuen & van Dijk, Herman K, 1978. "Bayesian Estimates of Equation System Parameters: An Application of Integration by Monte Carlo," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 1-19, January.
  13. Eric Parrado & Andres Velasco, 2002. "Optimal Interest Rate Policy in a Small Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 8721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Kouri, Pentti J K & Porter, Michael G, 1974. "International Capital Flows and Portfolio Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 443-67, May/June.
  15. Kenneth Kletzer & Mark Spiegel, 1996. "Speculative capital inflows and exchange rate targeting in the Pacific Basin," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 96-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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