Exchange Rate Policy and Debt Crises in Emerging Economies
We explore a model intended to capture the interaction between exchange rate policy, fiscal policy, and outright default on foreign-currency denominated debt. We examine how the exchange rate affects the supply of short-term debt facing the government. We show that under a credible hard peg (currency board), default is a more likely outcome, even without an exceptionally large short-term debt, precisely because a devaluation is not an option. In a more conventional fixed peg, it can be optimal for the government to choose a level of the exchange rate that would be likely to result in partial or complete debt default. Depending on the exchange rate regime, multiple equilibria exist, in one of which the interest rate is high, the exchange rate is overvalued, output is low, and default is high. Under a hard peg, there is a unique equilibrium.
|Date of creation:||01 Mar 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Christopher A. Sims, 2001.
"Fiscal consequences for Mexico of adopting the dollar,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 597-625.
- Sims, Christopher A, 2001. "Fiscal Consequences for Mexico of Adopting the Dollar," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 597-616, May.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2001.
"Fixing for your life,"
13873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1988.
"The advantage of tying one's hands : EMS discipline and Central Bank credibility,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1055-1075, June.
- Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1991. "The Advantage of Tying One's Hands: EMS Discipline and Central Bank Credibility," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 303-330 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1986. "The Advantages of Tying One's Hands: EMS Discipline and Central Bank Credibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 135, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Eichengreen, Barry, 1990.
"Historical Research on International Lending and Debt,"
Department of Economics, Working Paper Series
qt39n6n9ns, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Barry Eichengreen, 1991. "Historical Research on International Lending and Debt," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 149-169, Spring.
- Barry Eichengreen., 1990. "Historical Research on International Lending and Debt," Economics Working Papers 90-153, University of California at Berkeley.
- Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
- Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2000.
"Banks, Short Term Debt and Financial Crises: Theory, Policy Implications and Applications,"
NBER Working Papers
7764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diamond, Douglas W. & Rajan, Raghuram G., 2001. "Banks, short-term debt and financial crises: theory, policy implications and applications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 37-71, June.
- Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, . "Banks, Short Term Debt and Financial Crises: Theory, Policy Implications and Applications."," CRSP working papers 518, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Jeremy A.Rogoff Bulow & Kenneth, 1986.
"A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt,"
University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State
43, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
- Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 1989. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," Scholarly Articles 12491028, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Jeremy I. Bulow & Kenneth Rogoff, 1986. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," NBER Working Papers 2088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James Conklin, 1998. "The Theory of Sovereign Debt and Spain under Philip II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(3), pages 483-513, June.
- Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002.
"Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings,"
World Bank Economic Review,
World Bank Group, vol. 16(2), pages 151-170, August.
- Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises and Sovereign Credit Ratings," NBER Working Papers 8738, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "Default, currency crises, and sovereign credit ratings," MPRA Paper 13917, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Harold L. Cole & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1996. "Reputation spillover across relationships: reviving reputation models of debt," Staff Report 209, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Calvo, Guillermo A, 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 647-61, September.
- Wiesner, Eduardo, 1985. "Latin American Debt: Lessons and Pending Issues," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 191-95, May.
- Catherine A Pattillo & Andrew Berg & Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Eduardo Borensztein, 2000. "Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems; The Role of Early Warning Systems," IMF Occasional Papers 186, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/60. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.