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Trade Costs, Market Integration, and Macroeconomic Volatility

  • Kanda Naknoi
  • Allan D. Brunner

This paper examines the effects of trade costs on macroeconomic volatility. We first construct a dynamic, two-country general equilibrium model, where the degree of market integration depends directly on trade costs (transport costs, tariffs, etc.). The model is a extension of Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995). Naturally, a reduction in trade costs leads to more market integration, as the relative price of foreign goods falls and households increase their consumption of imported goods. In addition, with more market integration, the model predicts that the variability of the real exchange rate should fall, while the variability of the trade balance should increase. Trade costs have ambiguous effects on the volatility of other macro variables, such as income and consumption. Finally, we present some empirical findings that provide mixed support for the model's predictions.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/54.

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Length: 49
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/54
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  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," NBER Working Papers 4693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Lee, J. & Chinn, M.D., 1998. "The Current Account and the Real Exchange Rate: A Structural VAR Analysis of Major Currencies," Papers 97-98-17, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
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  4. Alan C. Stockman & Linda L. Tesar, 1991. "Tastes and technology in a two-country model of the business cycle: explaining international co-movements," Working Paper 9019, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  5. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
  6. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi, 1994. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 951, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. David Romer, 1991. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-59, December.
  9. Lane, Philip R., 1997. "Inflation in open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 327-347, May.
  10. Irwin, Douglas A, 1996. "The United States in a New Global Economy? A Century's Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 41-46, May.
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  12. Crucini, Mario J, 1997. "Country Size and Economic Fluctuations," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 204-20, May.
  13. Eswar Prasad, 1999. "International Trade and the Business Cycle," IMF Working Papers 99/56, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Sutherland, Alan, 1996. " Financial Market Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 521-39, December.
  15. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 1995. "How wide is the border?," International Finance Discussion Papers 498, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Jonathan E. Haskel & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2000. "Have Falling Tariffs and Transportation Costs Raised U.S. Wage Inequality?," NBER Working Papers 7539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Lastrapes, William D, 1992. "Sources of Fluctuations in Real and Nominal Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(3), pages 530-39, August.
  18. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1985. "Exchange Rates and Prices," NBER Working Papers 1769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Ahmed, S. & Ickes, B. & Wang, P. & Yoo, S., 1989. "International Business Cycles," Papers 7-89-4, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  20. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
  21. Senay, Ozge, 1998. "The Effects of Goods and Financial Market Integration on Macroeconomic Volatility," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 66(0), pages 39-61, Supplemen.
  22. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June.
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  24. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
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