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Country and Industry Dynamics in Stock Returns

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  • Luis Catão
  • Allan Timmermann

Abstract

A perennial question in international finance is to what extent stock returns are influenced by country-location, as opposed to industry-affiliation, factors. This paper develops a novel methodology to measure these effects, in which portfolios mimicking "pure" country and industry factors are first constructed and their joint dynamics then modeled as regime-switching processes. Estimation using global firm-level data allows us to identify well-defined volatility states over the past thirty years and shows that the contribution of the industry factor becomes systematically more prominent during high global volatility states, while the country factor contribution declines. Using the model's estimates, we find that portfolio diversification possibilities vary considerably across economic states.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Catão & Allan Timmermann, 2003. "Country and Industry Dynamics in Stock Returns," IMF Working Papers 03/52, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/52
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Allan Timmermann, 2000. "Firm Size and Cyclical Variations in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1229-1262, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fedorova, Elena, 2011. "Transfer of financial risk in emerging eastern European stock markets : A sectoral perspective," BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    2. L’Her, Jean-François & Le Moigne, Cécile & Savaria, Patrick, 2007. "Importance relative des effets pays et secteurs dans les marchés développés," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(2), pages 201-226, juin.
    3. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2009. "International Stock Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2591-2626, December.
    4. Bai, Ye & Green, Christopher J. & Leger, Lawrence, 2012. "Industry and country factors in emerging market returns: Did the Asian crisis make a difference?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 559-580.
    5. Francesca Carrieri & Vihang Errunza & Sergei Sarkissian, 2012. "The Dynamics of Geographic versus Sectoral Diversification: Is There a Link to the Real Economy?," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(04), pages 1-41.
    6. John Ammer & Jon Wongswan, 2007. "Cash Flows and Discount Rates, Industry and Country Effects and Co-Movement in Stock Returns," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 211-226, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International financial markets; International capital markets; Diversification; Risk; Volatility States; Regime Switching; correlations; probabilities; stock returns; covariances; correlation; Bayesian Analysis; Econometric and Statistical Methods: - General;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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