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The Long-Run Effects of Tradeon Income and Income Growth

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  • Allan D. Brunner

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between trade and income. While most economists agree that increased trade leads to an increase in average income, economic theory is ambiguous about the possible effects on the long-run growth rate of the economy. Using a dynamic panel data model, the hypotheses of no long-run effects of trade on income and on income growth are tested explicitly. The possibility of endogeneity is addressed by constructing an instrument for trade by extending Frankel and Romer's (1999) cross-sectional approach to the case of a panel data model. The empirical results indicate that trade has a large and significant effect on the level of income, but the effect on income growth is small and non-robust to model specification.

Suggested Citation

  • Allan D. Brunner, 2003. "The Long-Run Effects of Tradeon Income and Income Growth," IMF Working Papers 03/37, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/37
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
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    6. Irwin, Douglas A. & Tervio, Marko, 2002. "Does trade raise income?: Evidence from the twentieth century," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 1-18, October.
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    8. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
    9. Alberto Chong & Luisa Zanforlin, 2001. "Technological adaptation, trade, and growth," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 137(4), pages 565-592, December.
    10. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
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    13. Francisco Rodriguez & Dani Rodrik, 1999. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to Cross-National Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7081, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya, 2011. "Globalization and growth in the low income African countries with the extreme bounds analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 795-805, May.
    2. B. Bhaskara Rao & Artur Tamazian & Krishna Chaitanya Vadlamannati, 2011. "Growth effects of a comprehensive measure of globalization with country-specific time series data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(5), pages 551-568.
    3. Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2012. "Does trade openness affect long run growth? Cointegration, causality and forecast error variance decomposition tests for Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2325-2339.
    4. Wu, Tommy T., 2015. "Firm heterogeneity, trade, multinationals, and growth: A quantitative evaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 359-375.
    5. Bruno S. Frey & Lasse Steiner, 2012. "Political Economy: Success or Failure?," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 6(3), September.
    6. Jose Romero, 2012. "Inversión extranjera directa y crecimiento económico en México: 1940-2010," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2012-12, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
    7. José Romero, 2015. "Exports, imports, FDI and GDP in Mexico," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2015-01, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
    8. Vivek B. Arora & Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2004. "How Much Do Trading Partners Matter for Economic Growth?," IMF Working Papers 04/26, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Bergheim, Stefan, 2007. "Pair-wise cointegration in long-run growth models," Research Notes 24, Deutsche Bank Research.
    10. repec:eee:joecas:v:17:y:2018:i:c:p:13-20 is not listed on IDEAS

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