Economic Implications of China's Demographics in the 21st Century
This study assesses the economic implications of China's changing population in the 21st century using a numerical general equilibrium model. The simulations show that lower fertility rates yield lower saving rates. Since lower fertility rates reduce the future supply of labor, capital will become less productive. Consequently, if international capital mobility is high in China, a low fertility rate implies more future capital outflows. But if capital is less mobile, low fertility today lowers the domestic return to capital and raises the domestic return to labor. In addition, the paper finds no significant link between demographic structures and per capita income growth.
|Date of creation:||01 Feb 2003|
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- Steven A. Symansky & Peter S. Heller, 1997. "Implications for Savings of Aging in the Asian â€œTigersâ€," IMF Working Papers 97/136, International Monetary Fund.
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- Bakshi, Gurdip S & Chen, Zhiwu, 1994. "Baby Boom, Population Aging, and Capital Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 165-202, April.
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