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How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?

  • M. Ayhan Kose
  • Eswar Prasad
  • Marco Terrones

This paper examines the impact of rising trade and financial integration on international business cycle comovement among a large group of industrial and developing countries. The results provide at best limited support for the conventional wisdom that globalization has increased the degree of synchronization of business cycles. The evidence that trade and financial integration enhance global spillovers of macroeconomic fluctuations is stronger for industrial countries. One striking result is that, on average, cross-country consumption correlations have not increased in the 1990s, precisely when financial integration would have been expected to result in better risk-sharing opportunities, especially for developing countries.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/27.

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Length: 14
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/27
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  1. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 2003. "Identifying the Common Component of International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 101-127, January.
  2. M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 2002. "The trade comovement problem in international macroeconomics," Staff Reports 155, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. César Calderón & Alberto Chong & Ernesto Stein, 2002. "Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronization: Are Developing Countries Any Different?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 195, Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2002. "Financial Globalization and Real Regionalization," CEPR Discussion Papers 3268, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Jean Imbs, 2003. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," IMF Working Papers 03/81, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 1997. "Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 5984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Otrok, C. & Whiteman, C.H., 1996. "Bayesian Leading Indicators: Measuring and Predicting Economic Conditions in Iowa," Working Papers 96-14, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
  8. Marco Terrones & Eswar Prasad & M. Ayhan Kose, 2003. "Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility," IMF Working Papers 03/50, International Monetary Fund.
  9. M. Ayhan Kose & Kenneth Rogoff & Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries; Some Empirical Evidence," IMF Occasional Papers 220, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Glenn Otto & Graham Voss & Luke Willard, 2001. "Understanding OECD Output Correlations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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