Sources of Nominal Exchange Rate Fluctuations in South Africa
This paper investigates the sources of fluctuations in the rand-U.S. dollar exchange rate in 2001 and 2002 using an empirical exchange rate model which identifies aggregate supply, aggregate demand, and nominal disturbances as possible sources for exchange rate fluctuations. According to our results, nominal disturbances explain by far most of the rand depreciation in the final quarter of 2001. The fact that the nominal effective exchange rate also depreciated sharply suggests the nominal disturbances were domestically generated. From a preliminary examination of the relative movements in policy interest rates in South Africa and the United States, along with growth rates in both narrow and broad monetary aggregates in South Africa, it is difficult to isolate the underlying cause of the nominal disturbances in 2001 and 2002. Clearly, the task remains a challenging one with the empirical tools available.
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- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994.
"Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations: how important are nominal shocks?,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
- Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Sources of real exchange-rate fluctuations: How important are nominal shocks?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 1-56, December.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 4658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi, 1994. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 951, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jordi Galí & Richard Clarida, 1993. "Sources of real exchage rate fluctuations: How important are nominal shocks?," Economics Working Papers 66, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 1994.
- Lane, Philip R., 1999.
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2115, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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