What Sustains Fiscal Consolidations in Emerging Market Countries?
This paper examines the factors affecting the persistence of fiscal consolidation in 25 emerging market countries during 1980-2001. It proposes a new approach for defining spells of fiscal consolidation. The results indicate that the probability of ending a fiscal adjustment is affected by the legacy of previous fiscal failures, the size of the deficit, the composition of spending, and level of total revenues. There is also some evidence that the initial debt stock, exchange rate developments, inflation, and the unemployment rate have an impact on the persistence of adjustments.
|Date of creation:||01 Nov 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ardagna, Silvia, 2001. "Fiscal Policy Composition, Public Debt, and Economic Activity," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 109(3-4), pages 301-25, December.
- Stanley Fischer, 1993.
"The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
4565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1399-1436.
- Baldacci, Emanuele & Hillman, Arye L. & Kojo, Naoko C., 2004.
"Growth, governance, and fiscal policy transmission channels in low-income countries,"
European Journal of Political Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 517-549, September.
- Naoko C. Kojo & Arye L. Hillman & Emanuele Baldacci, 2003. "Growth, Governance, and Fiscal Policy Transmission Channels in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 03/237, International Monetary Fund.
- A.J. Hughes Hallett & Peter McAdam, 2003. "Deficit Targeting Strategies: Fiscal Consolidation and the Probability Distribution of Deficits under the Stability Pact," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 421-444, 06.
- Luisa Lambertini & Jose Tavares, 2003.
"Exchange Rates and Fiscal Adjustments: Evidence from the OECD and Implications for EMU,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
576, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Lambertini, Luisa & Tavares, Jose, 2002. "Exchange Rates and Fiscal Adjustments: Evidence from the OECD and Implications for EMU," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp412, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia.
- Soojin Moon & Ales Bulir, 2003. "Do IMF-Supported Programs Help Make Fiscal Adjustment More Durable?," IMF Working Papers 03/38, International Monetary Fund.
- Robert F. Westcott & C. John McDermott, 1996.
"An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments,"
IMF Working Papers
96/59, International Monetary Fund.
- von Hagen, Jurgen & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Strauch, Rolf, 2002. "Budgetary Consolidation in Europe: Quality, Economic Conditions, and Persistence," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 512-535, December.
- Francesco Giavazzi & Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano, 2000.
"Searching for Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Industrial and Developing Countries,"
NBER Working Papers
7460, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000. "Searching for non-linear effects of fiscal policy: Evidence from industrial and developing countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1259-1289, June.
- Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000. "Searching for Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Industrial and Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 2374, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hjelm, Goran, 2002. " Effects of Fiscal Contractions: The Importance of Preceding Exchange Rate Movements," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(3), pages 423-41, September.
- Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Fiscal Consolidation in Europe: Composition Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 105-10, May.
- Ardagna, Silvia, 2001. "Fiscal Policy Composition, Public Debt, and Economic Activity," Scholarly Articles 2579823, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Ardagna, Silvia & Alesina, Alberto, 1998. "Tales of Fiscal Adjustment," Scholarly Articles 2579822, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Vito Tanzi & Howell H Zee, 1996.
"Fiscal Policy and Long-Run Growth,"
IMF Working Papers
96/119, International Monetary Fund.
- Heylen, Freddy & Everaert, Gerdie, 2000. "Success and Failure of Fiscal Consolidation in the OECD: A Multivariate Analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 105(1-2), pages 103-24, October.
- Reyes Maroto Illera & Carlos Mulas-Granados, . "Duration of Fiscal Consolidations in the European Union," Working Papers 2001-19, FEDEA.
- Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 1998. "Tales of fiscal adjustment," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 13(27), pages 487-545, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/224. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.