IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

What Sustains Fiscal Consolidations in Emerging Market Countries?

  • Benedict J. Clements
  • Sanjeev Gupta
  • Erwin H Tiongson
  • Emanuele Baldacci
Registered author(s):

    This paper examines the factors affecting the persistence of fiscal consolidation in 25 emerging market countries during 1980-2001. It proposes a new approach for defining spells of fiscal consolidation. The results indicate that the probability of ending a fiscal adjustment is affected by the legacy of previous fiscal failures, the size of the deficit, the composition of spending, and level of total revenues. There is also some evidence that the initial debt stock, exchange rate developments, inflation, and the unemployment rate have an impact on the persistence of adjustments.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/224.

    in new window

    Length: 27
    Date of creation: 01 Nov 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/224
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA

    Phone: (202) 623-7000
    Fax: (202) 623-4661
    Web page:

    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information: Web:

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Fiscal Consolidation in Europe: Composition Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 105-10, May.
    2. Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1399-1436.
    3. Ardagna, Silvia & Alesina, Alberto, 1998. "Tales of Fiscal Adjustment," Scholarly Articles 2579822, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    4. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
    5. A.J. Hughes Hallett & Peter McAdam, 2003. "Deficit Targeting Strategies: Fiscal Consolidation and the Probability Distribution of Deficits under the Stability Pact," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 421-444, 06.
    6. Ardagna, Silvia, 2001. "Fiscal Policy Composition, Public Debt, and Economic Activity," Scholarly Articles 2579823, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    7. Robert F. Westcott & C. John McDermott, 1996. "An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments," IMF Working Papers 96/59, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Hjelm, Goran, 2002. " Effects of Fiscal Contractions: The Importance of Preceding Exchange Rate Movements," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(3), pages 423-41, September.
    9. repec:pal:imfstp:v:43:y:1996:i:4:p:725-753 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ardagna, Silvia, 2001. "Fiscal Policy Composition, Public Debt, and Economic Activity," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 109(3-4), pages 301-25, December.
    11. von Hagen, Jurgen & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Strauch, Rolf, 2002. "Budgetary Consolidation in Europe: Quality, Economic Conditions, and Persistence," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 512-535, December.
    12. Reyes Maroto Illera & Carlos Mulas-Granados, . "Duration of Fiscal Consolidations in the European Union," Working Papers 2001-19, FEDEA.
    13. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 1998. "Tales of fiscal adjustment," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 13(27), pages 487-545, October.
    14. Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000. "Searching for Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Industrial and Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 2374, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Soojin Moon & Ales Bulir, 2003. "Do IMF-Supported Programs Help Make Fiscal Adjustment More Durable?," IMF Working Papers 03/38, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Baldacci, Emanuele & Hillman, Arye L. & Kojo, Naoko C., 2004. "Growth, governance, and fiscal policy transmission channels in low-income countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 517-549, September.
    17. Heylen, Freddy & Everaert, Gerdie, 2000. "Success and Failure of Fiscal Consolidation in the OECD: A Multivariate Analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 105(1-2), pages 103-24, October.
    18. Vito Tanzi & Howell H Zee, 1996. "Fiscal Policy and Long-Run Growth," IMF Working Papers 96/119, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Lambertini, Luisa & Tavares, Jose, 2002. "Exchange Rates and Fiscal Adjustments: Evidence from the OECD and Implications for EMU," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp412, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/224. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)

    or (Hassan Zaidi)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.