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Are Pegged and Intermediate Regimes More Crisis Prone?

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  • Andrea Bubula
  • Inci Ötker

Abstract

This paper provides evidence on the susceptibility of different types of exchange rate regimes to currency crises during 1990-2001. It explores the incidence of crises, identified as episodes of severe exchange market pressure, to seek evidence on whether pegged regimes are more crisis prone than floating regimes and on whether certain types of pegged regimes are more crisis prone than others. The paper finds that pegged regimes, as a whole, have been characterized by a higher incidence of crises than floating regimes, for countries that are more integrated with international capital markets; and that intermediate regimes (mainly soft pegs and tightly-managed floating regimes) have been more crisis prone than both hard pegs and other floating regimes-a view consistent with the bipolar view of exchange rate regimes. The degree of crisis proneness seems to be broadly similar across different types of intermediate regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Bubula & Inci Ötker, 2003. "Are Pegged and Intermediate Regimes More Crisis Prone?," IMF Working Papers 03/223, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/223
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andreou, Irène & Dufrénot, Gilles, 2009. "A Forewarning Indicator System for Financial Crises: the Case of Six Central and Eastern European Countries," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 24, pages 87-115.
    2. Lahura, Erick & Vega, Marco, 2013. "Regímenes cambiarios y desempeño macroeconómico: Una evaluación de la literatura," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 101-119.
    3. Nicolas E. Magud & Carmen M. Reinhart & Esteban R. Vesperoni, 2014. "Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate Flexibility and Credit Booms," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 415-430, August.
    4. Hefeker, Carsten, 2004. "Default, Electoral Uncertainty and the Choice of Exchange Regime," HWWA Discussion Papers 298, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    5. Sula, Ozan, 2011. "Demand for international reserves in developing nations: A quantile regression approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 764-777, September.
    6. Aasim M. Husain & Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes & Robin Brooks & Kenneth Rogoff, 2003. "Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 03/243, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Tony Cavoli & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2005. "Have Exchange Rate Regimes in Asia become More Flexible Post crisis? Re-VISITING the EVIDENCE," Finance Working Papers 22563, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    8. Ayadi, Mohamed & Khallouli, Wajih & Sandretto, René, 2006. "Les déterminants des crises financières récentes des pays émergents," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 82(3), pages 341-376, septembre.
    9. Quader, Syed Manzur, 2004. "Floating Exchange Rate Regime," MPRA Paper 26163, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Bersch, Julia & Klüh, Ulrich H., 2007. "When countries do not do what they say: Systematic discrepancies between exchange rate regime announcements and de facto policies," Discussion Papers in Economics 2072, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    11. Atsushi Iimi, 2006. "Exchange Rate Misalignment; An Application of the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to Botswana," IMF Working Papers 06/140, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Pierre-Richard Agenor, 2004. "Orderly exits from adjustable pegs and exchange rate bands," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 83-108.
    13. Gilda C Fernandez & Cem Karacadag & Rupa Duttagupta, 2004. "From Fixed to Float; Operational Aspects of Moving towards Exchange Rate Flexibility," IMF Working Papers 04/126, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Javier Díaz-Cassou & Alicia García-Herrero & Luis Molina, 2006. "What kind of capital flows does the IMF catalyze and when?," Working Papers 0617, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    15. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2005. "Bi-Polar Disorder: Exchange Rate Regimes, Economic Crises and the IMF," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0705, School of Economics, University of Surrey.

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