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The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Monetary Policy During a Zero-Interest-Rate Period

  • Jun Nagayasu

This paper empirically evaluates the validity of the term structure of interest rates in a low-interest-rate environment. Applying a time-series method to high-frequency Japanese data, the term-structure model is found to be useful for economic analysis only when interest rates are high. When interest rates are low, the usefulness of the model declines, since the interest spread contains little information that can be used for predicting future economic activity. The term-structure relationship is also weakened by the Bank of Japan's use of interest rate smoothing.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/208.

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Length: 31
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/208
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  1. Ryo Kato & Shinichi Nishiyama, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy When Interest Rates are Bound at Zero," Working Papers 01-12, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
  2. Marvin Goodfriend, 2001. "Financial stability, deflation, and monetary policy," Working Paper 01-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  3. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  4. Kugler, Peter, 1997. "Central Bank Policy Reaction and the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 217-24, July.
  5. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Bennett T. McCallum, 2005. "Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 1-21.
  7. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
  8. Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Scholarly Articles 3122490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  9. Daniel L. Thornton, 2004. "Testing the expectations hypothesis: some new evidence for Japan," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 21-40.
  10. David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 1999. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low inflation era," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1987. "The Case of the Negative Nominal Interest Rates: New Estimates of the Term Structure of Interest Rates During the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 2472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Okina, Kunio & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2004. "Policy commitment and expectation formation: Japan's experience under zero interest rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 75-100, March.
  13. Nagayasu, Jun, 2002. "On the term structure of interest rates and inflation in Japan," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 505-523.
  14. Takeshi Kimura & Hiroshi Kobayashi & Jun Muranaga & Hiroshi Ugai, 2003. "The effect of the increase in the monetary base of Japan's economy at zero interest rates: an empirical analysis," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 276-312 Bank for International Settlements.
  15. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  16. Kim, Kenneth A. & Limpaphayom, Piman, 1997. "The effect of economic regimes on the relation between term structure and real activity in Japan," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 379-392.
  17. Reifschneider, David & Willams, John C, 2000. "Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Era," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 936-66, November.
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