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The Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuationson Output and Prices; Evidence From Developing Countries

  • Magda E. Kandil
  • Ida Aghdas Mirzaie

The paper examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on real output and the price level in a sample of 33 developing countries. The theoretical model decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. Unanticipated currency fluctuations help to determine aggregate demand through exports, imports, and the demand for domestic currency, and aggregate supply through the cost of imported intermediate goods. Anticipated exchange rate depreciation, through the supply channel, has limited effects on output growth and inflation. Unanticipated currency fluctuations appear more significant, with varying effects on output growth and price inflation across developing countries.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/200.

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Length: 32
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/200
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  1. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Hanson, James A., 1983. "Contractionary devaluation, substitution in production and consumption, and the role of the labor market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 179-189, February.
  3. Kamin, Steve B. & Rogers, John H., 2000. "Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 85-109, February.
  4. Engle, Robert F., 1982. "A general approach to lagrange multiplier model diagnostics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 83-104, October.
  5. Barbone, Luca & Rivera-Batiz, Francisco, 1987. "Foreign capital and the contractionary impact of currency devaluation, with an application to Jamaica," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 1-15, June.
  6. Guitian, Manuel, 1976. "The effects of changes in the exchange rate on output, prices and the balance of payments," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 65-74, February.
  7. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Carlos A. Végh, 1996. "Disinflation and The Recession-Now-versus-Recession-Later Hypothesis: Evidence from Uruguay," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(2), pages 355-394, June.
  8. John H. Rogers & Ping Wang, 1993. "Output, inflation, and stabilization in a small open economy: evidence from Mexico," Research Paper 9315, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  9. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
  10. J. Saul Lizondo & Peter J. Montiel, 1989. "Contractionary Devaluation in Developing Countries: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(1), pages 182-227, March.
  11. Edward, Sebastian, 1986. "Are Devaluations Contractionary?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(3), pages 501-08, August.
  12. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Radetzki, Marian, 1991. "Does Devaluation Make Sense in the Least Developed Countries?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(1), pages 1-25, October.
  13. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1991. "Output, devaluation and the real exchange rate in developing countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 18-41, March.
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