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The U.S. Dollar and the Trade Deficit; What Accounts for the Late 1990's?

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  • Benjamin L Hunt
  • Alessandro Rebucci

Abstract

Based on a version of the IMF’s new Global Economic Model (GEM), calibrated to analyze macroeconomic interdependence between the United States and the rest of the world, this paper asks to what extent an asymmetric productivity shock in the tradable sector of the economy may account for real exchange rate and trade balance developments in the United States in the second half of the 1990s. The paper concludes that the Balassa-Samuelson effect of such a productivity shock is only part of the story. A second shock, a broadly defined “risk premium” shock, and some uncertainty about the persistence of both shocks are needed to match the data more satisfactorily.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin L Hunt & Alessandro Rebucci, 2003. "The U.S. Dollar and the Trade Deficit; What Accounts for the Late 1990's?," IMF Working Papers 03/194, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/194
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    Cited by:

    1. Angeletos, George-Marios & Panousi, Vasia, 2011. "Financial integration, entrepreneurial risk and global dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 863-896, May.
    2. Kuralbayeva, Karlygash & Vines, David, 2009. "The process by which the Dollar will fall: the effect of forward-looking consumers," CEPR Discussion Papers 7325, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2009. "The evolution of the Sino-American Co-dependency: modelling a regime switch in a growth setting," Department of Economics Working Papers 0905, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    4. Cacciatore, Matteo & Ghironi, Fabio & Stebunovs, Viktors, 2015. "The domestic and international effects of interstate U.S. banking," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 171-187.
    5. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vincenzo Quadrini & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 2007. "Financial Integration, Financial Deepness and Global Imbalances," NBER Working Papers 12909, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Alessandro Rebucci & Nicoletta Batini & Pietro Cova & Massimiliano Pisani, 2009. "Global Imbalances; The Role of Non-Tradabletotal Factor Productivity in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 09/63, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Pietro Cova & Massimiliano Pisani & Alessandro Rebucci, 2009. "Global Imbalances: The Role of Emerging Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 716-733, September.
    8. George-Marios Angeletos & Vasia Panousi, 2011. "Financial Integration, Entrepreneurial Risk and Global Imbalances," NBER Working Papers 16761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Dennis P Botman & David Rose & Douglas Laxton & Philippe D Karam, 2007. "DSGE Modeling at the Fund; Applications and Further Developments," IMF Working Papers 07/200, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Matthieu Bussiere & Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou & Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma, 2017. "Current account dynamics and the real exchange rate: Disentangling the evidence," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2017-06, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    11. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vincenzo Quadrini & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2009. "Financial Integration, Financial Development, and Global Imbalances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(3), pages 371-416, June.
    12. Bems, Rudolfs & Dedola, Luca & Smets, Frank, 2007. "US imbalances: The role of technology and policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 523-545, June.
    13. Ogawa, Eiji & Iwatsubo, Kentaro, 2009. "External adjustments and coordinated exchange rate policy in Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, pages 225-239.
    14. Chiu, Yi-Bin & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Sun, Chia-Hung, 2010. "The U.S. trade imbalance and real exchange rate: An application of the heterogeneous panel cointegration method," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 705-716, May.
    15. Viktors Stebunovs & Fabio Ghironi, 2008. "The Domestic and International Effects of Financial Deregulation," 2008 Meeting Papers 676, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Pietro Cova & Massimiliano Pisani & Alessandro Rebucci, 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects of China’s Fiscal Stimulus," Research Department Publications 4689, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    17. David D. VanHoose, 2004. "The New Open Economy Macroeconomics: A Critical Appraisal," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 193-215, April.

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