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Anticipating Arrears to the IMF Early Warning Systems

  • Chikako Oka
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    This paper attempts to predict the incidence of arrears to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by modifying and applying two of the major early warning systems for currency crises: the "signals" approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1997) and the probit-based alternative developed by Berg and Pattillo (1998). The results, based on both in-sample and out-of-sample tests, appear encouraging. While the unique nature of IMF arrears poses some challenges, the models could be useful tools for identifying countries at high risk of incurring arrears to the IMF.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/18.

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    Length: 35
    Date of creation: 01 Jan 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/18
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    1. Enrica Detragiache & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, 1999. "Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility: A Multivariate Logit Approach," IMF Working Papers 99/147, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Catherine A. Pattillo & Andrew Berg, 1998. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Working Papers 98/154, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Andrew Berg & Jeffrey Sachs, 1988. "The Debt Crisis: Structural Explanations of Country Performance," NBER Working Papers 2607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Christian B. Mulder & Matthieu Bussière, 1999. "Political Instability and Economic Vulnerability," IMF Working Papers 99/46, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Lynn Aylward & Rupert Thorne, 1998. "An Econometric Analysis of Countries' Repayment Performance to the International Monetary Fund," IMF Working Papers 98/32, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Enrica Detragiache & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2001. "Crises and Liquidity: Evidence and Interpretation," IMF Working Papers 01/2, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou, 1989. "Do the Secondary Markets Believe in Life After Debt?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 911, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Feder, Gershon & Uy, Lily V., 1985. "The determinants of international creditworthiness and their policy implications," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 133-156.
    11. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    12. Catherine A. Pattillo & Andrew Berg & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Eduardo Borensztein, 2000. "Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems: The Role of Early Warning Systems," IMF Occasional Papers 186, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Manuel De la Rocha & Roberto Perrelli & Christian B. Mulder, 2002. "The Role of Corporate, Legal and Macroeconomic Balance Sheet Indicators in Crisis Detection and Prevention," IMF Working Papers 02/59, International Monetary Fund.
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