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Potential Output and total Factor Productivity Growth in Post-Apartheid South Africa

  • Vivek B. Arora
  • Ashok Bhundia
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    This paper provides estimates of potential output growth in post-apartheid South Africa using both time trend techniques and a production function approach which indicates a potential growth rate of around 3 percent. The implied output gap provides statistically significant information for predicting inflation and could thus provide valuable input for formulating macroeconomic policy. Growth accounting and regression analysis suggest that an increase in trend GDP growth after the end of apartheid in 1994 is attributable to higher TFP growth driven by trade liberalization and greater private sector participation.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/178.

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    Length: 21
    Date of creation: 01 Sep 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/178
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    1. Bankim Chadha, 1995. "Disequilibrium in the Labor Market in South Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(3), pages 642-669, September.
    2. David T. Coe & Elhanan Helpman & Alexander Hoffmaister, 1995. "North-South R&D Spillovers," NBER Working Papers 5048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Luis A. Rivera-Batiz & Paul M. Romer, 1990. "Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 3528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. P.D.F. Strydom, 1995. "International Trade and Economic Growth: The Opening-up of the South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 63(4), pages 306-316, December.
    5. Patrick Minford, 1997. "Growth, Employment and Economic Reform Lessons for South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 65(4), pages 202-213, December.
    6. G.L. Wet, 1995. "The Prognosis for Growth and Development in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 63(4), pages 263-270, December.
    7. By Gunnar Jonsson & Arvind Subramanian, 2001. "Dynamic Gains from Trade: Evidence from South Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 8.
    8. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
    9. Chantal Dupasquier & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1997. "A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap," Working Papers 97-5, Bank of Canada.
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