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Sticky Inflation and the Real Effects of Exchange Rate Based Stabilization

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  • Oya Celasun

Abstract

Exchange rate-based inflation stabilization (ERBS) policies are associated with a boom-recession cycle in economic activity and sustained real exchange rate appreciation. A class of models in the literature has explained these empirical regularities with the lack of credibility of the stabilization plans. The lack-of-credibility models typically assume perfectly forward-looking pricing behavior without inflation stickiness and attribute the slow decline in inflation to the consumption boom that occurs due to the perceived temporariness of the ERBS policy. This paper tests the empirical validity of forward-looking pricing behavior in Mexico and Turkey, two countries which have experienced ERBS. It finds that the forward- and backward-looking components of inflation weigh approximately equally in pricing behavior, and therefore, that inflation is partially sticky. The paper then develops the theoretical implications of partial inflation stickiness in a lack of credibility model of ERBS and concludes that the presence of stickiness significantly reduces the persistence of the consumption boom predicted by the model, but helps to explain the recession in the late phase of the stabilization.

Suggested Citation

  • Oya Celasun, 2003. "Sticky Inflation and the Real Effects of Exchange Rate Based Stabilization," IMF Working Papers 03/151, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/151
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ghezzi, Piero, 2001. "Backward-looking indexation, credibility and inflation persistence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 127-147, February.
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    3. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January.
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    5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    6. De Gregorio, Jose & Guidotti, Pablo E & Vegh, Carlos A, 1998. "Inflation Stabilisation and the Consumption of Durable Goods," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(446), pages 105-131, January.
    7. Reinhart, Carmen & Vegh, Carlos, 1994. "Inflation stabilization in chronic inflation countries: The empirical evidence," MPRA Paper 13689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    13. Allan Drazen & Elhanan Helpman, 1987. "Stabilization with Exchange Rate Management," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(4), pages 835-855.
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    Cited by:

    1. Oya Celasun & R. Gaston Gelos & Alessandro Prati, 2004. "Obstacles to disinflation: what is the role of fiscal expectations?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 19(40), pages 441-481, October.

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