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Exits From Pegged Regimes; An Empirical Analysis

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  • Inci Ötker
  • Rupa Duttagupta

Abstract

Using countries' de facto exchange rate regimes during 1985-2002, this paper analyzes the determinants of exits from pegged regimes, where exits involve shifts to more or less flexible regimes, or adjustments within the existing regime. Distinguishing episodes characterized by "exchange market pressure" from orderly exits, the estimated probabilities of alternative exit episodes indicate that crises are preceded by a deterioration of economic conditions. In contrast, orderly exits to less flexible regimes are preceded by long regime duration, a decline in financial liabilities of the banking system, and an increase in official reserves. Exits to more flexible regimes are associated with both emerging market and other developing countries, and an increase in trade openness and government borrowing from banks. The results are robust to alternative sensitivity analyses and have reasonable predictive performance, confirming that economic and financial conditions and regime duration play important roles in determining the future course of exchange rate regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Inci Ötker & Rupa Duttagupta, 2003. "Exits From Pegged Regimes; An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 03/147, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/147
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    6. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
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    12. Sebastian Edwards & Julio Santaella, 1993. "Devaluation Controversies in the Developing Countries: Lessons from the Bretton Woods Era," NBER Chapters,in: A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform, pages 405-460 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Qing He & Wing Hong Chan, 2016. "From Fixed to Float: A Competing Risks Analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 488-503, October.
    2. Eichengreen, Barry, 2003. "The Accession Economies’ Rocky Road to the Euro," Institute of European Studies, Working Paper Series qt07h5c51w, Institute of European Studies, UC Berkeley.
    3. Quader, Syed Manzur, 2004. "Floating Exchange Rate Regime," MPRA Paper 26163, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ahmet Atil Asici, 2010. "Parametric and non-parametric approaches to exits from fixed exchange rate regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 381-406.
    5. Ahmet Atil Asici & Nadezhda Ivanova & Charles Wyplosz, 2008. "How to exit from fixed exchange rate regimes?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 219-246.
    6. Andrea Bubula & Inci Ötker, 2003. "Are Pegged and Intermediate Regimes More Crisis Prone?," IMF Working Papers 03/223, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Post, Erik, 2007. "Macroeconomic imbalances and exchange rate regime shifts," Working Paper Series 2007:4, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    8. Hefeker, Carsten, 2004. "Default, Electoral Uncertainty and the Choice of Exchange Regime," HWWA Discussion Papers 298, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    9. Ralph Setzer, 2005. "The Political Economy of Fixed Exchange Rates: A Survival Analysis," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 265/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    10. Husain, Aasim M. & Mody, Ashoka & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2005. "Exchange rate regime durability and performance in developing versus advanced economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 35-64, January.
    11. Aasim M. Husain & Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes & Robin Brooks & Kenneth Rogoff, 2003. "Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 03/243, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Sébastien Wälti, 2005. "The duration of fixed exchange rate regimes," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp96, IIIS.
    13. Sean Barrett, 2005. "Risk Equalisation and Competition in the Irish Health Insurance Market," Trinity Economics Papers 200058, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    14. Nikola Fabris & Slobodan Aćimović, 2010. "Exchange Rate Policy in Serbia," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 17(1), pages 170-180, May.
    15. Raul Razo-Garcia, 2011. "The Duration of Intermediate Exchange Rate Regimes and Capital Controls," Carleton Economic Papers 11-01, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 17 Oct 2011.
    16. repec:tcd:wpaper:tep8 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Enrica Detragiache & Eisuke Okada & Ashoka Mody, 2005. "Exits from Heavily Managed Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 05/39, International Monetary Fund.

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