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Assessing Fiscal Sustainability; A Cross-Country Comparison

Author

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  • Enzo Croce
  • V. Hugo Juan-Ramon

Abstract

To monitor fiscal sustainability, this paper proposes a recursive algorithm derived from the law of motion of the debt-to-GDP ratio, subject to a government reaction function that links convergence to the targeted debt ratio with primary fiscal surpluses. Based on quarterly estimates of this algorithm in the 1990s, 12 developed and developing countries are ranked according to their degree of sustainability. For a number of countries, the paper finds evidence of causality between the fiscal policy stance and growth-adjusted real interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Enzo Croce & V. Hugo Juan-Ramon, 2003. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability; A Cross-Country Comparison," IMF Working Papers 03/145, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/145
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Fiscal Consolidation in Europe: Composition Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 105-110, May.
    2. Catherine Pattillo & Hélène Poirson & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2011. "External Debt and Growth," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 2(3).
    3. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1909, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Michael Mussa, 2002. "Argentina and the Fund: From Triumph to Tragedy," Peterson Institute Press: Policy Analyses in International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa67, February.
    6. Luigi Spaventa, 1987. "The Growth of Public Debt: Sustainability, Fiscal Rules, and Monetary Rules," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(2), pages 374-399, June.
    7. Alejandro Izquierdo, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability in Argentina," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(7), pages 903-923, July.
    8. Enrica Detragiache & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2001. "Crises and Liquidity; Evidence and Interpretation," IMF Working Papers 01/2, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ata Ozkaya, 2013. "Public Debt Stock Sustainability in Selected OECD Countries," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 13(1), pages 31-49.
    2. Carlos Díaz Alvarado & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ugo Panizza, 2004. "Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries with an Application to Ecuador," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1536, Inter-American Development Bank.
    3. Yilmaz Akyüz, 2007. "Debt Sustainability in Emerging Markets: A Critical Appraisal," Working Papers 61, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    4. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Lau, Evan, 2007. "Regime changes and the sustainability of fiscal imbalance in East Asian countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 878-894, November.
    5. Joseph Ntamatungiro, 2004. "Fiscal Sustainability in Heavily Indebted Countries Dependenton Nonrenewable Resources; The Case of Gabon," IMF Working Papers 04/30, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Chirwa, Themba G & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2018. "The Determinants Of Public Debt In The Euro Area: A Panel ARDL Approach," Working Papers 23509, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "The Net Worth Approach to Fiscal Analysis; Dynamics and Rules," IMF Working Papers 06/17, International Monetary Fund.
    8. repec:ksa:szemle:1732 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Gábor Kutasi, 2017. "Unsustainable Public Debt in a European Fiscal Union?," REVISTA FINANZAS Y POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA DE COLOMBIA, vol. 9(1), pages 25-39, February.
    10. Stoian, Andreea & Alves, Rui Henrique, 2014. "High public debt in the euro area: still a fact," MPRA Paper 63679, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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