Trade Elasticities and Market Expectations in Brazil
This paper provides econometric estimates of trade elasticities for Brazil obtained through cointegration and vector auto regression models and controlling for the effects of exchange rate volatility, capacity utilization, and changes in import tariffs. The results suggest that (i) recent market expectations may have been unduly pessimistic regarding the responsiveness of Brazil's trade flows to the real exchange rate, but (ii) the GDP growth rates targeted by the new government may put downward pressure on the exchange rate and thus render the achievement of official inflation targets considerably more difficult if structural reforms are not implemented.
|Date of creation:||01 Jul 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Devereux, Michael B. & Engel, Charles, 2002.
"Exchange rate pass-through, exchange rate volatility, and exchange rate disconnect,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 913-940, July.
- M.B. Devereux & Ch. Engel, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Exchange Rate Volatility, and ExchangeRate Disconnect," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 77, Netherlands Central Bank.
- Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Exchange Rate Disconnect," NBER Working Papers 8858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bughin, Jacques, 1996. "Capacity Constraints and Export Performance: Theory and Evidence from Belgian Manufacturing," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 187-204, June.
- Luiz Fernando Figueiredo & Pedro Fachada & Sérgio Goldenstein, 2002. "Monetary Policy in Brazil: Remarks on the Inflation Targeting Regime, Public Debt Management and Open Market Operations," Working Papers Series 37, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Paul Krugman, 1988.
"Differences In Income Elasticities and Trends in Real Exchange Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
2761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Krugman, Paul, 1989. "Differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1031-1046, May.
- Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2001. "Inflation Targeting in an Open Financially Integrated Emerging Economy: the case of Brazil," Working Papers Series 26, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, March.
- Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Chui, Michael K F, 1999. "Estimating Income and Price Elasticities of Trade in a Cointegration Framework," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 254-64, May.
- McKenzie, Michael D, 1999. " The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
- Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K Rose, 1999.
"Noise trading and exchange rate regimes,"
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series
G99/2, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Abdelhak Senhadji, 1998. "Time-Series Estimation of Structural Import Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 236-268, June.
- Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
- Jackson, John D. & Smyth, David J., 1985. "Specifying differential cyclical response in economic time series : Capacity utilization and demand for imports," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 149-161, April.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/140. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.