Determinants of Inflation in a Transition Economy; The Case of Ukraine
This paper examines determinants of inflation in Ukraine during 1993-2002 in a cointegrating framework. Two basic theoretical models-a markup and a money market model-are tested. While broad money is cointegrated with the CPI for the whole sample and for early subsamples, the cointegration ceases to be statistically significant between 1996-2002, in part because of strong remonetization. The mark-up model offers a more consistent and well-fitting overall framework for 1996-2002 data, pointing inter alia to a greater role of administered prices in the CPI within a fairly mainstream inflation process. The "long-term" monetary transmission mechanism operates through the exchange rate and wages, but broad money clearly enters short-term inflation determinants. Prudent macroeconomic policies, grain harvests, and administrative decisions explain the sharp decline of inflation over 2000-2002.
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- Gordon de Brouwer & Neil R. Ericsson, 1995.
"Modelling inflation in Australia,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
530, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Paula De Masi & Vincent Koen, 1997. "Prices in Transition: Ten Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 97/158, International Monetary Fund.
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