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Determinants of Inflation in a Transition Economy; The Case of Ukraine

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  • Bogdan Lissovolik

Abstract

This paper examines determinants of inflation in Ukraine during 1993-2002 in a cointegrating framework. Two basic theoretical models-a markup and a money market model-are tested. While broad money is cointegrated with the CPI for the whole sample and for early subsamples, the cointegration ceases to be statistically significant between 1996-2002, in part because of strong remonetization. The mark-up model offers a more consistent and well-fitting overall framework for 1996-2002 data, pointing inter alia to a greater role of administered prices in the CPI within a fairly mainstream inflation process. The "long-term" monetary transmission mechanism operates through the exchange rate and wages, but broad money clearly enters short-term inflation determinants. Prudent macroeconomic policies, grain harvests, and administrative decisions explain the sharp decline of inflation over 2000-2002.

Suggested Citation

  • Bogdan Lissovolik, 2003. "Determinants of Inflation in a Transition Economy; The Case of Ukraine," IMF Working Papers 03/126, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/126
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paula De Masi & Vincent Koen, 1997. "Prices in the Transition; Ten Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 97/158, International Monetary Fund.
    2. de Brouwer, Gordon & Ericsson, Neil R, 1998. "Modeling Inflation in Australia," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 433-449, October.
    3. Gunnar Jonsson, 1999. "Inflation, Money Demand, and Purchasing Power Parity in South Africa," IMF Working Papers 99/122, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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    Cited by:

    1. Oomes, Nienke & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2005. "Money demand and inflation in dollarized economies: The case of Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 462-483, September.
    2. Boriss Siliverstovs & Olena Bilan, 2006. "Modeling Inflation Dynamics in Transition Economies: The Case of Ukraine," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 66-81, December.
    3. Fakhri, Hasanov & Khudayar, Hasanli, 2011. "Why had the Money Market Approach been irrelevant in explaining inflation in Azerbaijan during the rapid economic growth period?," MPRA Paper 29559, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Era Dabla-Norris & Holger Floerkemeier, 2006. "Transmission Mechanisms of Monetary Policy in Armenia; Evidence from VAR Analysis," IMF Working Papers 06/248, International Monetary Fund.
    5. van Aarle, Bas & de Jong, Eelke & Sosoian, Robert, 2006. "Exchange rate management in Ukraine: Is there a case for more flexibility?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 282-305, October.
    6. Vinhas de Souza, Lúcio & Schweickert, Rainer & Movchan, Veronika & Bilan, Olena & Burakovsky, Igor, 2005. "Now so near, and yet still so far: economic relations between Ukraine and the European Union," Kiel Discussion Papers 419, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    7. Federico Marongiu, 2004. "Devaluación e Inflacion en Argentina despues de la Convertibilidad," Macroeconomics 0404013, EconWPA.
    8. Brieuc Monfort & Santiago Peña, 2008. "Inflation Determinants in Paraguay; Cost Push versus Demand Pull Factors," IMF Working Papers 08/270, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Ukraine; transition; cointegration; money demand; price level; high inflation; money growth; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models;

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