Determinants of Inflation in a Transition Economy; The Case of Ukraine
This paper examines determinants of inflation in Ukraine during 1993-2002 in a cointegrating framework. Two basic theoretical models-a markup and a money market model-are tested. While broad money is cointegrated with the CPI for the whole sample and for early subsamples, the cointegration ceases to be statistically significant between 1996-2002, in part because of strong remonetization. The mark-up model offers a more consistent and well-fitting overall framework for 1996-2002 data, pointing inter alia to a greater role of administered prices in the CPI within a fairly mainstream inflation process. The "long-term" monetary transmission mechanism operates through the exchange rate and wages, but broad money clearly enters short-term inflation determinants. Prudent macroeconomic policies, grain harvests, and administrative decisions explain the sharp decline of inflation over 2000-2002.
|Date of creation:||01 Jun 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htmEmail:
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Paula De Masi & Vincent Koen, 1997. "Prices in Transition; Ten Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 97/158, International Monetary Fund.
- Gunnar Jonsson, 1999. "Inflation, Money Demand, and Purchasing Power Parity in South Africa," IMF Working Papers 99/122, International Monetary Fund.
- de Brouwer, Gordon & Ericsson, Neil R, 1998.
"Modeling Inflation in Australia,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 433-49, October.
- Gordon de Brouwer & Neil R. Ericsson, 1995. "Modelling inflation in Australia," International Finance Discussion Papers 530, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Gordon de Brouwer & Neil R. Ericsson, 1995. "Modelling Inflation in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9510, Reserve Bank of Australia.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/126. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.