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Nonlinear Exchange Rate Models; A Selective Overview

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  • Lucio Sarno

Abstract

This paper provides a selective overview of nonlinear exchange rate models recently proposed in the literature and assesses their contribution to understanding exchange rate behavior. Two key questions are examined. The first question is whether nonlinear autoregressive models of real exchange rates help resolve the "purchasing power parity (PPP) puzzles." The second question is whether recently developed nonlinear, regime-switching vector equilibrium correction models of the nominal exchange rate can beat a random walk model, the standard benchmark in the exchange rate literature, in terms of out-of-sample forecasting performance. Finally, issues related to the adequateness of standard methods of evaluation of (linear and nonlinear) exchange rate models are discussed with reference to different forecast accuracy criteria.

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  • Lucio Sarno, 2003. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Models; A Selective Overview," IMF Working Papers 03/111, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/111
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    Cited by:

    1. Lo, Ming Chien & Morley, James, 2015. "Bayesian analysis of nonlinear exchange rate dynamics and the purchasing power parity persistence puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 285-302.
    2. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2015. "Can international macroeconomic models explain low-frequency movements of real exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 199-211.
    3. Erik Alencar de Figueiredo & André de Mattos Marques, 2013. "Testing absolute PPP hypothesis for twenty countries through the skeleton from a SETAR model- some new evidence," Série Textos para Discussão (Working Papers) 16, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia - PPGE, Universidade Federal da Paraíba.
    4. Miller, J. Isaac, 2011. "Testing the bounds: Empirical behavior of target zone fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1782-1792, July.
    5. Aleš Bulíø, 2005. "Liberalized Markets Have More Stable Exchange Rates: Short-Run Evidence from Four Transition Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(5-6), pages 206-231, May.
    6. Cem Payaslioglu, 2008. "Revisiting East Asian exchange rates: the same spirit under a different sky," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(15), pages 1263-1276.
    7. John W. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables," Staff Working Papers 07-1, Bank of Canada.
    8. Ales Bulir, 2003. "Some Exchange Rates Are More Stable than Others: Short-Run Evidence from Transition Countries," Working Papers 2003/05, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    9. Junttila, Juha & Korhonen, Marko, 2011. "Nonlinearity and time-variation in the monetary model of exchange rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 288-302, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonlinearity; Forecasting; Foreign exchange; Purchasing power parity; exchange rate; exchange rates; real exchange rate; random walk;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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