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Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps, with An Application to Sovereign Debt Crises

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  • Jorge A Chan-Lau

Abstract

In reduced-form pricing models, it is usual to assume a fixed recovery rate to obtain the probability of default from credit default swap prices. An alternative credit risk measure is proposed here: the maximum recovery rate compatible with observed prices. The analysis of the recent debt crisis in Argentina using this methodology shows that the correlation between the maximum recovery rate and implied default probabilities turns negative in advance of the credit event realization. This empirical finding suggests that the maximum recovery rate can be used for constructing early warning indicators of financial distress.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2003. "Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps, with An Application to Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/106, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/106
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    2. Ian Marsh, 2002. "What central banks can learn about default risk from credit markets," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market functioning and central bank policy, volume 12, pages 329-339 Bank for International Settlements.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nurbanu Bursa & Hüseyin Tatlýdil, 2015. "Investigation of Credit Default Swaps using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis which is an Econophysical Technique," Eurasian Eononometrics, Statistics and Emprical Economics Journal, Eurasian Academy Of Sciences, vol. 2(2), pages 25-33, October.
    2. Andrea Pescatori & Amadou N R Sy, 2007. "Are Debt Crises Adequately Defined?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(2), pages 306-337, June.
    3. Ciarlone, Alessio & Trebeschi, Giorgio, 2005. "Designing an early warning system for debt crises," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 376-395, December.
    4. Amadou N Sy & Andrea Pescatori, 2004. "Debt Crises and the Development of International Capital Markets," IMF Working Papers 04/44, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Dale F. Gray & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2006. "A New Framework for Analyzing and Managing Macrofinancial Risks of an Economy," NBER Working Papers 12637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2011. "Credit and Liquidity Risks in Euro-area Sovereign Yield Curves," Working Papers 2011-26, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    7. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2006. "Market-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities and its Application to Financial Market Surveillance," IMF Working Papers 06/104, International Monetary Fund.

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