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The Transmission Mechanism of European Monetary Policy; Is There Heterogeneity? Is it Changing over Time?

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  • Matteo Ciccarelli
  • Alessandro Rebucci

Abstract

This paper investigates the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the four largest euro area countries by means Bayesian estimation of dynamic econometric models. Based on pre-EMU evidence from Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, we show that: (i) there are differences in the timing of the effects of monetary policy on economic activity, but their cumulative impact after two years is rather homogeneous; (ii) the transmission mechanism seems to have changed over time in the run-up to EMU but its degree of heterogeneity has not decreased; (iii) the "European-wide" effects of monetary policy may have become faster in the second half of the 1990s. We interpret this evidence by conjecturing that the transmission mechanism of monetary policy had already become relatively homogenous in the second part of the 1990s.

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  • Matteo Ciccarelli & Alessandro Rebucci, 2002. "The Transmission Mechanism of European Monetary Policy; Is There Heterogeneity? Is it Changing over Time?," IMF Working Papers 02/54, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:02/54
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Monteforte, Libero, 2007. "Aggregation bias in macro models: Does it matter for the euro area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 236-261, March.
    2. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2003. "Measuring contagion with a Bayesian, time-varying coefficient model," Working Paper Series 263, European Central Bank.
    3. Joshua C.C. Chan & Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2012. "Time Varying Dimension Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 358-367, January.
    4. Mojon, Benoît & Peersman, Gert, 2001. "A VAR description of the effects of monetary policy in the individual countries of the euro area," Working Paper Series 0092, European Central Bank.
    5. Gambacorta, L. & Martínez-Pagés, J. & Sevestre, P. & Worms, A., 2002. "Financial Systems and the Role of Banks in Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area.Author-Name: Ehrmann, M," Working papers 93, Banque de France.
    6. Libero Monteforte & Stefano Siviero, 2010. "The economic consequences of euro-area macro-modelling shortcuts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(19), pages 2399-2415.
    7. Matteo Ciccarelli & Alessandro Rebucci, 2003. "Bayesian Vars; A Survey of the Recent Literature with An Application to the European Monetary System," IMF Working Papers 03/102, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Gavin, William T. & Kemme, David M., 2009. "Using extraneous information to analyze monetary policy in transition economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 868-879, September.
    9. Ester Faia, 2007. "Financial Differences and Business Cycle Co-Movements in a Currency Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 151-185, February.
    10. Andrea Venegoni & Massimiliano Serati, 2017. "The Symmetry of ECB Monetary Policy Impact Under Scrutiny: An Assessment," LIUC Papers in Economics 306, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
    11. Zlatina Balabanova & Ralf Brüggemann, 2012. "External Information and Monetary Policy Transmission in New EU Member States: Results from FAVAR Models," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2012-05, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    12. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
    13. Florian Hoppner & Christian Melzer & Thorsten Neumann, 2008. "Changing effects of monetary policy in the US-evidence from a time-varying coefficient VAR," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2353-2360.
    14. Sousa, Pedro, 2009. "Do ECB Council Decisions represent always a Real Euro Consensus?," Working Papers 9/2009, Universidade Portucalense, Centro de Investigação em Gestão e Economia (CIGE).
    15. Gilhooly, Robert & Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2015. "Estimation of short dynamic panels in the presence of cross-sectional dependence and dynamic eterogeneity," Discussion Papers 38, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    16. Daniel Gros & Carsten Hefeker, 2007. "Monetary Policy In Emu With Asymmetric Transmission And Non-Tradable Goods," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 54(2), pages 268-282, May.
    17. Helge Berger & Till Mueller, 2007. "How should large and small countries be represented in a currency union?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 132(3), pages 471-484, September.
    18. Christian Melzer & Thorsten Neumann, 2005. "Changing Effects of Monetary Policy in the U.S. –Evidence from a Time-Varying Coefficient VAR," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 144, Society for Computational Economics.
    19. Fabrizio Spargoli, 2005. "Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms within the European Monetary Union," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 95(6), pages 31-68, November-.
    20. Libero Monteforte & Stefano Siviero, 2002. "The economic consequences of euro area modelling shortcuts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 458, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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