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Fiscal Sustainability and Monetary Versus Fiscal Dominance; Evidence From Brazil, 1991-2000

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  • Evan C Tanner
  • Alberto M. Ramos

Abstract

Under a monetary dominant (MD) regime, the primary surplus adjusts to limit debt growth, permitting monetary policy to be conducted independently of fiscal financing requirements. In Brazil, some evidence favors an MD regime for 1995–97, but not for the decade of the 1990s as a whole. While fiscal adjustments of 1999 yielded a primary surplus of about 3 percent of GDP, consistent with solvency, a credible MD regime would require further adjustments of the primary surplus if debt increases, growth falls, or interest rates rise.

Suggested Citation

  • Evan C Tanner & Alberto M. Ramos, 2002. "Fiscal Sustainability and Monetary Versus Fiscal Dominance; Evidence From Brazil, 1991-2000," IMF Working Papers 02/5, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:02/5
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fabio Canova & Evi Pappa, 2007. "Price Differentials in Monetary Unions: The Role of Fiscal Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(520), pages 713-737, April.
    2. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos De Resende & Nooman Rebei, 2008. "The Welfare Implications of Fiscal Dominance," Staff Working Papers 08-28, Bank of Canada.
    2. Fan, Jingwen & Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong, 2016. "The role of fiscal policy in Britain's Great Inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 203-218.
    3. Andrea Fracasso, 2006. "The role of foreign and domestic factors in the evolution of the Brazilian EMBI spread and debt dynamics," IHEID Working Papers 22-2007, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Jul 2007.
    4. Garima Vasishtha & Taimur Baig & Manmohan S. Kumar & Edda Zoli, 2006. "Fiscal and Monetary Nexus in Emerging Market Economies; How Does Debt Matter?," IMF Working Papers 06/184, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Díaz-Roldán, Carmen & Esteve, Vicente, 2009. "Deficit sustainability and inflation in EMU: An analysis from the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 525-539, December.
    6. Fan, Jingwen & Minford, Patrick, 2009. "Can the Fiscal Theory of the price level explain UK inflation in the 1970s?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/26, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Mar 2011.
    7. William C. Gruben & John H. Welch, 2010. "Is Tighter Fiscal Policy Expansionary Under Fiscal Dominance?: Hypercrowding Out In Latin America," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 28(2), pages 171-181, April.
    8. Fan, Jingwen & Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong, 2013. "The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level - identification and testing for the UK in the 1970s," CEPR Discussion Papers 9763, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Ko, Jun-Hyung & Morita, Hiroshi, 2015. "Fiscal sustainability and regime shifts in Japan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 364-375.
    10. Obinyeluaku, Moses & Viegi, Nicola, 2009. "How does fiscal policy affect monetary policy in the Southern African Community (SADC)?," MPRA Paper 15372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Peter Claeys & Raúl Ramos & Jordi Suriñach, 2008. "Testing the FTPL across government tiers," IREA Working Papers 200812, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2008.
    12. Evan C Tanner, 2013. "Fiscal Sustainability; A 21st Century Guide for the Perplexed," IMF Working Papers 13/89, International Monetary Fund.
    13. repec:sbe:breart:v:27:y:2007:i:1:a:1573 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "Zambia; Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix," IMF Staff Country Reports 06/118, International Monetary Fund.

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