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The Impact of Cyclical Factorson the U.S. Balance of Payments

  • Joshua E. Greene
  • Magda E. Kandil

Real GDP growth and real effective exchange rate (REER) appreciation appear cointegrated with the current and financial accounts of the U.S. balance of payments. On this basis, we estimate reduced form equations showing that expected changes and shocks to real GDP, the REER, energy prices, and growth in emerging market economies and other industrial countries explain much of the short-term variation in the U.S. current account balance, with the balance worsening as real GDP, energy prices, and the REER increase. In addition, foreign direct investment rises with real growth, while stock market prices affect the composition of capital inflows.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 02/45.

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Length: 43
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:02/45
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  1. Peter Isard & Hamid Faruqee, 1998. "Exchange Rate Assessment; Extension of the Macroeconomic Balance Approach," IMF Occasional Papers 167, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Engle, Robert F., 1982. "A general approach to lagrange multiplier model diagnostics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 83-104, October.
  3. Catherine L. Mann, 1999. "Is the U.S. Trade Deficit Sustainable?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 47, December.
  4. Magda E. Kandil, 2000. "Demand-Side Stabilization Policies; What is the Evidence of their Potential?," IMF Working Papers 00/197, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Hamid Faruqee & Guy Debelle, 1996. "What Determines the Current Account? a Cross-Sectional and Panel Approach," IMF Working Papers 96/58, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Menzie D. Chinn & Eswar S. Prasad, 2000. "Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Working Papers 7581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Cover, James Peery, 1992. "Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money-Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1261-82, November.
  8. Ronald McKinnon, 2001. "The International Dollar Standard and Sustainability of the U.S. Current Account Deficit," Working Papers 01013, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  9. Dufour, J.M., 1981. "Generalized Chow Tests for Structural Change: a Coordinate-Free Approach," Cahiers de recherche 8128, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  10. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
  11. Milesi-Ferretti, G-M & Razin, A, 1996. "Current-Account Sustainability," Princeton Studies in International Economics 81, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  12. Ronald I. McKinnon, 2001. "The International Dollar Standard and the Sustainability of the U.S. Current Account Deficit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 227-241.
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