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Stock Market Developments and Private Consumer Spending in Emerging Markets

  • Norbert Funke
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    Using a panel of 16 emerging markets, the paper finds a small but statistically significant effect of stock market developments on private consumption spending. In the short run, a 10 percent decline in the annual real stock market return is associated with a reduction in real private consumption by around 0.1-0.3 percent on average. There is evidence that the link between stock market fluctuations and private consumption has become stronger during the 1990s as stock markets in emerging economies have broadened and deepened. However, there is no significant evidence that the influence is asymmetric. Stock price declines do not have a different impact on consumption than stock price increases.

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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=16219
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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 02/238.

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    Length: 23
    Date of creation: 01 Dec 2002
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:02/238
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    1. Levine, Ross, 1996. "Financial development and economic growth : views and agenda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1678, The World Bank.
    2. Martha Starr-McCluer, 2002. "Stock Market Wealth and Consumer Spending," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(1), pages 69-79, January.
    3. Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, May.
    4. Utpal Bhattacharya & Hazem Daouk, 2002. "The World Price of Insider Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 75-108, 02.
    5. Torsten Sløk & Peter F. Christoffersen, 2000. "Do Asset Prices in Transition Countries Contain Information About Future Economic Activity?," IMF Working Papers 00/103, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Sydney Ludvigson & Charles Steindel, 1998. "How important is the stock market effect on consumption?," Research Paper 9821, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Kim, E Han & Singal, Vijay, 2000. "Stock Market Openings: Experience of Emerging Economies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(1), pages 25-66, January.
    8. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 565-613, 04.
    9. Morris A. Davis & Michael G. Palumbo, 2001. "A primer on the economics and time series econometrics of wealth effects," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2000. "Emerging Equity Markets and Economic Development," NBER Working Papers 7763, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Barry Bosworth, 1975. "The Stock Market and the Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(2), pages 527-300.
    12. Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson, 1998. "Stock Market Fluctuations and Consumption Behaviour: Some Recent Evidence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 208, OECD Publishing.
    13. William G. Gale & John Sabelhaus, 1999. "Perspectives on the Household Saving Rate," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(1), pages 181-224.
    14. James M. Poterba, 2000. "Stock Market Wealth and Consumption," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 99-118, Spring.
    15. Norbert Funke & Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, 2001. "Stock Market Liberalizations: Financial and Macroeconomic Implications," IMF Working Papers 01/193, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Chari, Anusha & Henry, Peter B., 2002. "Capital Account Liberalization: Allocative Efficiency or Animal Spirits?," Research Papers 1737, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    17. Christopher D. Carroll, 2001. "A Theory of the Consumption Function, with and without Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 23-45, Summer.
    18. Mauro, Paolo, 2003. "Stock returns and output growth in emerging and advanced economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 129-153, June.
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