Tax Revenue Forecasts in IMF-Supported Programs
Year-ahead forecasts of tax revenues incorporated into IMF programs for low-income countries, from 1993 to 1999, are compared with the corresponding outturns. The accuracy of these forecasts was low, with a mean absolute percentage error of 16 percent. Forecasts of tax revenues as a percentage of GDP were biased upwards, but there was no significant bias in forecasts of nominal tax revenues. Upward bias in the tax revenue forecasts was associated with subsequent interruptions to the program, and the length of time between the commencement of the program and the beginning of the year for which the forecast was made.
|Date of creation:||01 Dec 2002|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996.
"Forecast Evaluation and Combination,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, B. & Ghysels, E., 1995.
"An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Budget Process,"
Cahiers de recherche
9523, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Bryan Campbell & Eric Ghysels, 1997. "An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Budget Process," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 553-576, August.
- Bryan Campbell & Eric Ghysels, 1995. "An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Budget Process," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-08, CIRANO.
- Campbell, B. & Ghysels, E., 1995. "An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Budget Process," Cahiers de recherche 9523, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Tim Pike & David Savage, 1998. "Forecasting the public finances in the Treasury," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 49-62, February.
- Steven T Phillips & Alberto Musso, 2001.
"Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs,"
IMF Working Papers
01/45, International Monetary Fund.
- Alberto Musso & Steven Phillips, 2002. "Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 1-3.
- Artis, Michael J & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1999.
"Fiscal Forecasting: the Track Record of the IMF, OECD, and EC,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2206, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2001. "Fiscal forecasting: The track record of the IMF, OECD and EC," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 20-36.
- Artis, M. & Marcellino, M., 1999. "Fiscal Forecasting: the Track Record of the IMF, OECD and EC," Economics Working Papers eco99/22, European University Institute.
- Auerbach, Alan Jeffrey, 1999. "On the Performance and Use of Government Revenue Forecasts," Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series qt8h845262, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics.
- Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998.
"Forecasting Economic Time Series,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423, December.
- Auerbach, Alan J., 1999. "On the Performance and Use of Government Revenue Forecasts," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 52(4), pages 765-782, December.
- Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
- Mocan, H. Naci & Azad, Sam, 1995. "Accuracy and rationality of state General Fund Revenue forecasts: Evidence from panel data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 417-427, September.
- repec:ntj:journl:v:52:y:1999:i:n._4:p:765-82 is not listed on IDEAS
- Prakash Loungani, 2000.
"How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts; Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth,"
IMF Working Papers
00/77, International Monetary Fund.
- Loungani, Prakash, 2001. "How accurate are private sector forecasts? Cross-country evidence from consensus forecasts of output growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 419-432.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:02/236. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.