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Common and Idiosyncratic Components in Real Output; Further International Evidence

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  • Francisco d Nadal De Simone

Abstract

This paper uses the classical (level) definition of business cycles to analyze the characteristics-duration, amplitude, steepness, and cumulative output movements-of the real GDP series of France, Germany, Italy, the rest of the euro area, and the United States. An index of concordance and its test statistic suggest a great deal of comovement/synchronization between output cycles. Following that result, a dynamic factor model is estimated. Output fluctuations are mostly explained by a global common component and an euro area common component. However, idiosyncratic components also matter, especially for France, the rest of the euro area, and the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco d Nadal De Simone, 2002. "Common and Idiosyncratic Components in Real Output; Further International Evidence," IMF Working Papers 02/229, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:02/229
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Balázs Égert & Oliver Röhn, 2010. "Counter-cyclical Economic Policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 760, OECD Publishing.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2004. "Luxembourg; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 04/124, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Alain Kabundi & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2011. "France in the global economy: a structural approximate dynamic factor model analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 311-342, October.
    4. Cevik, Serhan, 2014. "Without Oil, How Do Gulf Countries Move? Non-hydrocarbon Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 29, pages 244-266.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "France; Financial Sector Assessment Program—Technical Notes—Stress Testing Methodology and Results; Integration into Global Financial Markets; and Public Intervention in Financial Markets—Obstacles to," IMF Staff Country Reports 05/185, International Monetary Fund.
    6. M. Y. Çakır & A. Kabundi, 2013. "Business cycle co-movements between South Africa and the BRIC countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(33), pages 4698-4718, November.
    7. Balázs Égert & Douglas Sutherland, 2014. "The Nature of Financial and Real Business Cycles: The Great Moderation and Banking Sector Pro-Cyclicality," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(1), pages 98-117, February.
    8. Igan, Deniz & Kabundi, Alain & Nadal De Simone, Francisco & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2011. "Housing, credit, and real activity cycles: Characteristics and comovement," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 210-231, September.
    9. Ajay Shah & Ila Patnaik & Shruthi Jayaram, 2009. "Examining the Decoupling Hypothesis for India," Working Papers id:2119, eSocialSciences.
    10. Alain Kabundi, 2009. "Synchronisation Between South Africa And The U.S.: A Structural Dynamic Factor Analysis," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(1), pages 1-27, March.
    11. Kabundi, Alain & Nadal De Simone, Francisco, 2012. "Recent French relative export performance: Is there a competitiveness problem?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1408-1435.
    12. Kabundi, Alain & Loots, Elsabe, 2007. "Co-movement between South Africa and the Southern African Development Community: An empirical analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 737-748, September.

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